Welcome to Jason.li’s Blog

二 9, 2010 Author xhxyfd

佛前感怀

九 4, 2010 Author xhxyfd

佛前感怀

李福立

缘,穿行了千年

我,坚守着前世的那份誓言

今生,将一颗心束缚于白云之巅

只为倾听你临风而来的脚步

只是相逢之时

你可否记得我已然苍白的容颜

夜,还是前世的夜

月,仍如昨日伤感

我,飞过红尘彼岸万水千山身带繁华三千

求佛祖,赐给我与你再结今世的情缘

[2010.08.21]End of the lines – 美国公共交通:穷途末路

八 20, 2010 Author xhxyfd

Public transport
美国公共交通

End of the lines
穷途末路

Atlanta’s transport system faces huge service cuts. It is not alone
亚特兰大的公共交通服务面临大幅减少,而且这在全美并不唯一

Aug 19th 2010 | ATLANTA

FROM downtown Atlanta, the 113 bus trundles past many of the city’s most prominent attractions: the Martin Luther King memorial, the Georgia Institute of Technology, the Georgia Aquarium, the World of Coca-Cola and Centennial Olympic Park. It serves residential neighbourhoods in Sweet Auburn, Candler Park and Inman Park; students at Georgia Tech; and tourists heading to the city’s museum and arts district. It does, in short, precisely what a city bus is supposed to do—make it feasible for people to get around without a car. On September 25th, it will cease operating.

从亚特兰大市中心出发,113路巴士经过很多城市里最著名的景点:马丁路德金纪念堂,佐治亚理工学院,佐治亚水族馆,可口可乐世界以及百年奥运公园。它主要服务的人群是居住在Sweet Auburn(译者:主要指Auburn大街周围纪念美国黑人的建筑群,其中有马丁路德金纪念址等标志性建筑),Candler公园以及Inman公园的市民;佐治亚理工学院的学生;以及来亚特兰大参观博物馆和艺术区的游客。简单说来,它做了一个城市巴士应该做的一切——让人们可以舒适地转悠而不用拥有一辆私车。但在9月25日,这条线路将停止运营。

The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transport Authority (MARTA), which runs the city’s buses and trains, is facing a $70m deficit next year, and will eliminate 40 of its 131 bus lines. It is also raising fares for weekly and monthly passes, cutting rail services by 14.2% and laying off around 300 people. This will hit the region hard: MARTA serves around 500,000 people per day, 46% of whom say they would be unable to travel without it.

负责运营这个城市所有的公交和火车线路的亚特兰大都市快速运输委员会(MARTA)下一财年面临着7千万的预算赤字,(因此)正打算取消113条公交线路中的40条。而且还会提高周票、月票的价格,减少14.2%的铁路服务,并裁员300多人。这将严重影响到整个亚特兰大地区:MARTA每天为大约50万人服务,46%的人说他们将因此无法顺利出行。

It is the country’s ninth-largest system by passenger numbers, but it labours under two onerous constraints. First, three of the counties in metro Atlanta’s five-county core region—Clayton, Cobb and Gwinnett—elected to start their own bus lines rather than merge with MARTA. The state of Georgia operates a line of commuter coaches, Xpress, that ferry people from 12 counties into Atlanta on weekdays. As a result, instead of one system that aggregates revenues and makes unitary transit decisions, Atlanta has a welter of small, often cash-strapped systems (Clayton’s ceased operations in March when its money ran out) that compete for passengers.

从承运的乘客数来看,MARTA是全国第九大交通运输系统,但它有两个很沉重的约束。第一,亚特兰大中心地区由五个县城组成,其中三个县城——克雷顿、 柯布及乔治亚(Clayton, Cobb,Gwinnett)——选择自己开设公交线路而不与MARTA合并。而佐治亚州工作日时间里又开有一条名为Xpress的巴士线路,把12个县的乘客运到亚特兰大。这样一来,不同于用一个系统协调运输、统一收入,亚特兰大地区有一大堆十分混乱而且缺钱的小运输体系(克雷顿的公交线路由于没钱在5月就停止运营了),而且互相争夺乘客。

Second, MARTA’s revenue comes entirely from passenger fares and from a 1% sales tax in the two counties it covers (Fulton and DeKalb, between which the city of Atlanta is divided). It is the largest public-transport system in America to receive no state funding, yet the state dictates how MARTA must spend the money it takes in: half on operations, half on capital projects. As Beverly Scott, MARTA’s boss, laments, this has led to a situation in which “I have to buy buses that I can’t afford to operate.” Georgia’s recent transport bill has now granted MARTA a reprieve from this mandate until 2012, when the bill will allow Georgia’s electorate to vote on transport projects in November’s ballot.

第二,MARTA的收入完全来自票价收入以及它覆盖的两个县1%的销售税收分成(Fulton和DeKalb,亚特兰大诚被夹在这两个县城中间)。MARTA是全美不接受州政府资助的交通系统中最大的一个,而且州政府还规定了MARTA必须把一半的资金花在运营,一半的资金花在资本项目(译者:比方说买新车等)上。正如MARTA的老板Beverly Scott感叹的,这导致这样一种境地,“我必须买车,但是我又没有钱让这些车跑起来。”佐治亚最新的客运条例已经允许MARTA到2012年以前缓行这个要求,到那时佐治亚的选民将在11月的选举中再决定应该选择怎样的运输体系。

MARTA’s situation is dire, but hardly unique: according to Transportation for America, a public-transport advocacy group based in Washington, dc, around 160 urban or regional transport systems in America cut service, raised fares or did both in 2009 or 2010, even as ridership on public transport nationwide has risen to levels unseen since the 1950s. Yet a survey by the group found that while only one in five voters has used public transport in the past month, four in five believe the country would benefit from an improved transport system, while nearly three in five say the federal government should boost spending on public transport. They did not, alas, say where that money should come from.

MARTA的情况很可怕而且并不唯一。根据华盛顿一个名为美国运输的公共交通游说团体的数据,即便在美国公共交通工具的乘客量已经增长到了自50年代以来从未达到过的最高点,美国仍然有大约160个城市或者地区的运输系统在2009年或者2010年减少了运营线路或者提高票价或者两者都为之。这个团体的一份调查显示,虽然只有五分之一的选民在过去一个月使用过公共交通,但五分之四的人认为改善公共交通系统是对国家有好处的,将近五分之三的人说联邦政府应该提高在公共交通上的投入。当然,他们没有说这笔钱应该从哪里来。

United States
美国

[2010.08.14] No, these are special puppies – 不,这些都是特殊的

八 18, 2010 Author xhxyfd

Net neutrality
网络中立

No, these are special puppies
不,这些都是特殊的

Google has joined Verizon in lobbying to erode net neutrality
谷歌加入威瑞森的游说行列阻止网络中立

Aug 12th 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC

TWO firms want to redefine the internet. Or so it seems, judging by the “legislative framework proposal” that Google and Verizon, an American telecoms operator, published on August 9th.

从谷歌和威瑞森(Verizon,美国电信厂商)8月9日提交的“框架性立法提案”来看,这两家公司希望可以重新定义互联网,至少看上去是这样。

Since May the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has been considering reclassifying broadband internet access as a telecommunications service. Under existing law, this would give the commission the authority to enforce “net neutrality”: the principle that all data, regardless of origin, should move at the same speed.

从今年5月开始,联邦通信委员会(Federal Communications Commission,FCC)就一直在考虑将宽带互联网接入服务重新定义为电讯服务。在现有的法律下,这将给予委员会更多的权利进一步推进“网络中立”(net neutrality):所有数据,无论来源,都应该以相同的速度传播(简单的理解就是购买相同水平网络服务的客户应该拥有相同的权利访问互联网,而事实上很多电信提供商会利用自己拥有的终端设备阻止用户访问一些网站或者使用一些服务——维基百科)

The commission last ruled on this in 2002. It heeded cable-broadband providers, who argued that, since they offered e-mail and web hosting along with their internet access, they were really selling information services, which are more lightly regulated. The Supreme Court agreed, though a dissenting justice observed that a pet store might just as logically package its puppies with leashes and then argue that it sold leashes, not puppies. Now, as the FCC regrets its ruling, Google and Verizon have proposed that Congress allow wireless services to remain free from regulation for now. Google insists that its goal remains that wireless data should be exempt from data discrimination: this is just a temporary compromise proposal. But the effect of it would be to leave wireless services free at least for the moment to discriminate between different sorts of data.*

委员会上次对此问题做出裁决还是2002年。这回他们关注的是宽带接入服务提供商,虽然这些服务商并不乐意,但是由于他们在提供宽带接入服务的同时还提供电子邮件以及网站服务器的服务,所以他们确实是在销售信息而且目前对他们的监管并不完善。最高法院也同意了这种观点,虽然也有大法官提出宠物商店逻辑上是宠物和(系宠物用的)皮带的集合,但不能因此辩称(宠物商店)销售的是皮带而不是宠物。现在,委员会开始着手调整他们的监管范围,谷歌和威瑞森马上游说国会暂时允许无线网络服务免受监管。(虽然谷歌)提交了这份临时性的妥协提案,但谷歌仍然坚持无线数据应当免于数据歧视(data discrimination,译者:与网络中立相对,指的是网络服务提供商拥有数据分配的优先权——维基百科)这个(长远)目标。但这份法案的影响就是无线网络服务商至少暂时可以对不同类别的数据进行不同的分配。*

They also want the law to create a new class of “additional online services”, which may use internet infrastructure, content and applications but are somehow not part of the internet. In providing these services, firms would be free to discriminate. Google and Verizon are arguing that internet access is just a puppy, sure, but it is not the same as the special puppies they might sell in the future.

他们还想通过立法创造出一种新的“附加网络服务”:这种服务利用因特网的设备、内容以及应用但是却不属于因特网的一部分。提供这种服务的公司可以免于“网络中立”的监管。谷歌和威瑞森强调说因特网接入服务当然是一只宠物,但是不是那种他们在未来销售的特殊宠物。

Verizon has invested heavily in fibre-optic broadband access. That it wants to avoid tedious regulation is not a surprise. Google, however, had supported the FCC’s approach as recently as this summer. It may believe itself strong enough to negotiate with each provider, or it may want a deal for its mobile operating system from wireless-telecoms operators. Whether all this is good for consumers or innovation remains to be seen.

威瑞森在光纤宽带接入服务中投入巨大,因此不奇怪它希望尽可能地避免乏味的监管。但是谷歌今年夏天才(宣布)支持FCC的政策,(因此谷歌的行为)可能是因为它认为自己足够强大到可以与每一个互联网服务提供商单独谈判,或者是这样做对它的手机操作系统有利。但这是否对消费者或者创新有利就还不知道了。

*Editor’s note: In the original version of this piece, we said that Google and Verizon were lobbying for Congress to declare wireless services open to data discrimination. Google says it has not actually said that: indeed it still maintains its long-term aim is to make the net neutral for wireless. It is merely pushing for Congress to exempt wireless services from regulation for now “as a compromise”, which would be under constant review. But that would have the effect of leaving those open to data discrimination. We have amended the text to make this distinction clear.

*编辑补充:在这篇文章最初的版本中,我们说谷歌和威瑞森在游说国会让无线网络服务可以数据歧视。谷歌说他们并没有真正这样说,事实上他们的长远目标仍然是要使无线网络服务实现“网络中立”。“作为妥协”它只是在促使国会让无线服务暂时免于监管,而且这会不断调整。但是这仍然有数据歧视的效果。我们已经修订了文本,以示明确。

Business
商业

译者:挺有意思的,人家美帝国主义都已经把网络接入服务的平等看成是基本人权了

Google Agonizes on Privacy as Ad World Vaults Ahead – 广告世界撑杆跳般的变化让Google十分难受

八 16, 2010 Author xhxyfd

Google Agonizes on Privacy as Ad World Vaults Ahead

广告世界撑杆跳般的变化让Google十分难受

By JESSICA E. VASCELLARO

A confidential, seven-page Google Inc. “vision statement” shows the information-age giant in a deep round of soul-searching over a basic question: How far should it go in profiting from its crown jewels—the vast trove of data it possesses about people’s activities?

Google公司一份7页纸,标有机密的“前景展望”报告显露这个信息时代的巨无霸正深陷一个简单问题探索的泥沼中:它到底可以从手上这些无尽的财富——大量宝贵的用户网上活动数据——获利到怎样的程度?


Should it tap more of what it knows about Gmail users? Should it build a vast “trading platform” for buying and selling Web data? Should it let people pay to not see any ads at all?

它是否可以深度挖掘它所掌握的那些Gmail用户?是否可以建立一个庞大的“交易平台”来买卖网络数据?是否可以通过收费而让客户看不到任何广告?

These and other ideas big and small—the third one was listed under “wacky”—are discussed in the document, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and compiled in late 2008 by Aitan Weinberg, now a senior product manager for interest-based advertising. Along with interviews with more than a dozen current and former employees, the vision statement offers a candid, introspective look at Google’s fight to remain at the vanguard of the information economy.

这些大大小小的想法——第三个还被列为“古怪”类——都在这份“前景展望”报告中被讨论。我们(华尔街日报)近日收到了这份2008年由Aitan Weinberg编写的文档,他现在是(用户)基础偏好广告部(interest-based advertising)的高级产品经理。在访谈了超过12个现任或者前任的Google员工之后,“前景展望”为我们提供了一个坦诚、内省地视角去探查Google如何努力保持自己成为信息经济时代的先锋而不掉队的。

Google is pushing into uncharted privacy territory for the company. Until recently, it refrained from aggressively cashing in on its own data about Internet users, fearing a backlash. But the rapid emergence of scrappy rivals who track people’s online activities and sell that data, along with Facebook Inc.’s growth, is forcing a shift.

Google正在进入一个完全未知的关于个人隐私的领域。直到现在,由于担心(公众情绪)反弹,它仍在避免过分地从那些用户数据中活得利润。但是现在那些好斗的对手们正通过跟踪用户的网上活动并销售这些数据(以获得利润),还有Facebook的快速增长,正在迫使Google做出转变。

A person familiar with the matter called the vision statement a “brainstorming document” and said it wasn’t presented to senior executives. Some of its ideas are “complete non-starters,” this person said. Efforts to reach Mr. Weinberg weren’t successful.

一位了解这份前景报告的人士称其为“头脑风暴式的文件”,而且肯定这没有被呈送给公司高层,(因为)有一些想法是完全是不可能实现的。我们希望采访到Weinberg先生,但是没有成功。

Still, several have been implemented. Among them: Last year, Google for the first time started collecting a new type of data about the websites people visit, and using it to track and show them ads across the Internet.

不过,还是有一些建议被采纳了。Google在去年第一次开始收集一种数据,这种数据可以记录用户访问过的所有网站,利用它可以在整个互联网中追踪用户并定制投放广告。

Worries about the size of Google’s data cache are “hypothetical,” said co-founder Larry Page last month in response to a reporter’s question about privacy. “It is always easy to be fearful of what could happen, right?”

对于Google数据储存大量用户信息的担心是“假设性”的,Google的联合创始人Larry Page上个月在回答记者关于隐私权的问题时说。“人总是很容易对未来可能发生的事情害怕,不是吗?”

As Google changes, it is likely to bring the rest of the online world with it. With more users than any other Internet company, it has an unparalleled ability to make new ad-targeting methods mainstream. The company also actively participates in trade groups that regularly craft new privacy practices among themselves in hopes of thwarting legislation. The Federal Trade Commission said last year that the field can regulate itself as long as companies disclose their practices to users, among other things.

随着Google的这种变化,这极有可能给其他网络世界带来巨变。拥有全世界最多的网络用户让Google具有无可匹敌的能力去创造一个新的广告定位模式。它还积极参加了一些贸易联盟,定期在联盟中参与起草一些新的关于隐私的政策以阻碍立法。美国联邦贸易委员会去年曾表示商业公司可以自我调节隐私政策,只要保证向公众开放这些政策就可以了。

Google is overwhelmingly important to online privacy. Roughly 75% of global Internet users, or 943.8 million people, used its services in June, more than any other Web company, according to comScore.

根据comScore的调查,6月份全球大约有75%的互联网用户,或九亿四千三百八十万的用户在使用Google的服务,超过其他任何一家互联网公司。(因此)Google是互联网隐私保护最关键的环节。

The vision statement describes the company’s immense search database as “the BEST source of user interests found on the Internet,” during a discussion of ways to make ads more relevant to users. “No other player could compete,” it says. Later, the document warns that some ideas range from “safe” to “not” safe.

“前景展望”中有一段讨论如何使广告更好地定位到用户的文字,其中形容Google庞大的搜索数据库为“互联网上关于用户偏好最好的(数据)来源”,“没有任何对手可以与之匹敌”。之后,这份文件对一些建议进行了分类,从“安全”到“不”安全。

The most aggressive ideas would put Google at the cutting edge of the business of tracking people online to profit from their actions. A data-trading marketplace, for instance, would allow personal information from many sources—including Google—to be combined and used for highly personalized tracking of individuals.

跟踪用户的网上的行为并以此获利,这种最激进的建议会把Google置于极度危险的商业境地中。比方说设立一个数据交易市场,允许将不同来源的个人信息——包括来自Google——整合起来然后提供高度个性化的用户跟踪服务。

Tiny companies like BlueKai Inc. and eXelate Media Ltd. already offer some of these services, pressuring Google to match them. A Wall Street Journal investigation, “What They Know,” is examining the widening trade in this kind of data and the consequences for individual privacy.

一些小型公司,如BlueKaieXelate传媒公司已经在提供一些这种服务,迫使Google赶上他们。一份华尔街日报的调查显示,“他们所知道,”就是不断测试这种针对个人隐私的交易可以达到的怎样的程度以及可能的后果。

Google trails in some of these techniques by choice. Famous for its unofficial corporate motto, “Don’t Be Evil,” for years it resisted using any method to track people online without their knowledge at the fierce insistence of founders Sergey Brin and Mr. Page. But the two men have gradually decided they can begin exploiting the data their company controls, without exploiting consumers, according to interviews with more than a dozen current and former employees.

Google选择性地跟踪了一些这种技术。由于那个有名的非官方座右铭,“永不作恶”,以及两位创始人Sergey BrinPage先生的强烈要求,Google一直拒绝在客户未知的情况下跟踪客户的行为。不过,在访谈了超过12个前任和现任雇员之后,这两人逐渐决定只要不剥削消费者就可以利用那些被Google掌控的数据(定制投放广告)。

The founders believe they are improving the Internet user’s experience, said Alma Whitten, who leads Google’s privacy engineering, in a June interview. “What’s good for the consumer is good for the advertiser.”

Google公司个人隐私部门(privacy engineering)主管在六月的一个访谈中表示,创始人相信他们正在做的事情会改变互联网用户的使用体验,“对用户有利就是对广告主有利。”

A recent Journal examination of the proliferation of online tracking found that Google’s tracking code appeared on 45 of the 50 most popular U.S. websites. (For details on those findings, go to WSJ.com/WTK.)

最近的网上跟踪检查发现,美国最流行的50个网站中,Google的跟踪代码出现在了其中的45个。(有关这些调查结果的详情,请看WSJ.com/WTK。)

The 2008 vision statement along with a dozen other internal documents reviewed by the Journal tell the inside story of how Google dragged its feet while its founders’ views evolved.

这份2008年的“前景展望”还回顾了很多其他的内部文档,(通过这些)可以告诉我们Google的政策是怎样随着创始人想法的变化而改变的。

Selling ads is Google’s big money-maker, but the online-ad business is broadening away from Google’s sweet spot, selling ads tied to the search-engine terms people use. Instead, advertisers want to target people based on more specific personal information such as hobbies, income, illnesses or circles of friends.

销售广告是Google最大的赚钱来源,但是通过匹配搜索引擎关键字的方式展示广告的办法已经不再是最有效的赚钱方式。相反,广告商都希望可以给予特定的用户个人信息,比方说爱好、收入、身体状况、朋友圈子等,来为用户定制投放广告。

The changes at Google reflect a power realignment online. For years, the strongest companies on the Internet were the ones with the most visitor traffic. Today, the power resides with those that have the richest data and are the savviest about using it.

这种发生在Google身上的变化反映了网络权力的变迁。多年来,互联网上最强的公司往往是那些拥有最多网络点击量的公司。但现在,拥有最丰富的数据以及最能灵活运用这些数据的公司才是网络的宠儿。

That has propelled Internet ad companies into an arms race so swift that even Google fears being left behind. One slide from an internal presentation in mid-2008, which was reviewed by the Journal, is headlined bluntly: “Get in the Game.”

这促使互联网网络公司进入一种连Google都害怕被甩掉的新竞争中。就像报告中援引的一次2008年年中的内部演讲,题目很吓人,“投入战争中”。

That particular slide describes the importance of breaking into the lucrative business of selling “display” ads, which are larger ads with pictures, as opposed to smaller text ads. Today, Google still trails market leader Yahoo in U.S. display-ad revenue, according to analysts.

该份报告还阐述了销售“展示”广告的重要性,这种广告专门针对以前小型的文字广告,而且比一般的带图片的广告更大。根据调查,在销售额上,Google到现在为止仍然落后于美国展示广告市场的领先者雅虎

Google still leads the Internet pack overall, of course. Its revenue, $23.7 billion in 2009, is more than three times Yahoo’s, its closest competitor. Its online advertising business is growing faster than those of its publicly held U.S. rivals.

当然,Google在互联网上是领先者。Google2009年的销售总额为237亿美元,最接近它的竞争对手雅虎也达到它的三分之一。Google在线广告业务的增长速度要远远高于其在美国的其他竞争对手。

But Google’s revenue growth has slowed dramatically. And social-networking powerhouse Facebook is a widening threat with its ability to sell highly targeted ads to its more than 500 million users.

但是Google销售总额的增长速度现在已经显著降低了。社交网站Facebook由于其针对5亿用户投放高度定制化广告的能力,正对Google形成日益紧迫的威胁。

Facebook fears run deep at Google, which is designing its own social-networking service. In a sign of how quickly things change, the 2008 vision statement scarcely mentioned social networks.

Facebook也十分害怕Google,因为Google正在开发自己的社交网站服务。而2008年的“前景展望”中一点也没有提到社交网络,从这之中我们可以看出事情变化的速度有多么迅速。

Google also plans to go head-to-head with Facebook’s “Like” button—a tiny tool on many websites that lets people tell friends they “like” something. Each click gives Facebook valuable, personal data about people’s interests.

Google还计划开发一个与Facebook“喜爱”按钮一模一样的功能:这是一个很小的工具,很多网站上都有,它允许用户告诉他们的朋友“我喜欢这个东西”。任何一次点击都告诉Facebook关于用户偏好的有价值信息。

Few online companies have the potential to know as much about its users as Google. Consider 26-year-old Ari Brand, an actor living in Manhattan’s East Village. Google has access to the fact he paid $733 for a flat-screen TV, because he uploaded his budget to Google Docs, an online word processor and spreadsheet. It has access to the 23,000 emails he has sent through Gmail. Google also saves searches tied to the network address of Mr. Brand’s computer, which it makes anonymous after 18 months.

没有别的网络公司拥有像Google那样的能力去深入了解用户。以26岁的Ari Brand为例,一个住在曼哈顿东村的演员。Google知道他花了733美元买了一台平板电视,因为他把自己的账单上传到了网络文档处理软件Google Docs中。Google还知道他通过Gmail发出的所有23000多封邮件,(甚至)还匿名记录了过去18个月Brand先生通过自己的电脑搜索过的所有网络地址。

Significantly, however, Google doesn’t mix those separate pots of personal data. For instance, it doesn’t use data gleaned from a person’s Gmail account to target ads to that person elsewhere online. Google’s computers do, however, scan Gmail messages to place contextual ads next to the emails themselves.

万幸的是,Google没有把这些分散的个人信息混合在一起。比方说,它没有把从Gmail账户中获得的个人信息用到其他网络广告的投放上,Google只是查看了Gmail的邮件信息并把文字广告置于邮件的旁边。

Google also says much of its data can’t be tied to a person by name.

Google也说它拥有的大多数数据不可以简单的通过名字联系到某个个人身上。

Executives long considered the privacy risks too great relative to the business rewards. According to people familiar with Google’s thinking, they felt the company was being held to a higher standard than less well-known firms, and preferred to let more aggressive rivals test the boundaries.

Google的高层很早就认识到相对于可能的商业回报,这种隐私政策所带来的风险更大。根据那些了解Google的人士的说法,与那些不知名的公司相比,感觉Google设定了更高的隐私政策标准,而且它希望更多激进的公司去冲击(公众的)底线。

Concerns about antitrust scrutiny also heightened the risk of finding new ways to profit from Google’s exclusive data.

另外,反垄断审查的问题也提高了从Google独家数据中寻找新方法获利的风险。

As recently as 2006 or so, Google’s sights weren’t set on Facebook—they were set on AOL and Yahoo, which together controlled roughly 40% of the U.S. display-ad business, analysts say.

早在2006年左右,Google的关注焦点还没有放在Facebook身上——他们对AOL(美国在线)和Yahoo(雅虎)更加关注,因为调查显示这两家公司共同控制了美国市场大约40%的显示广告业务。

One big obstacle in winning more of that business was Google co-founder Mr. Page, who objected to letting Google’s advertising customers work with companies that installed “cookies” on people’s computers for purposes of serving ads and tracking their performance. Cookies are little text files that can, among other things, be used to help track people’s activities online to show them ads targeted to their interests.

阻止Google公司开展更多这种(涉及隐私)服务的障碍是Google的联合创始人Page先生,他反对Google的广告商与那些在用户电脑上安装“Cookies”以追踪广告表现的(流氓)公司合作。Cookie是一种小的文本文件,可以用来记录电脑用户在网上的行动,从而更好的针对用户的喜好投放广告。

Those policies hurt Google’s display ad sales because the company wouldn’t let advertisers use technology they were used to. Google didn’t use ad-targeting cookies itself, either. That meant Google could only sell ads based only on the name or content of a page—for instance, putting a shoe ad on a page about shoes. That is known as “contextual” targeting, and many advertisers consider it less effective than “behavioral” targeting, which identifies specific users and their interests.

这种政策对Google展示广告的销量十分不利,因为这不允许广告商使用他们曾经使用过的技术。Google自己本事也不使用这种技术,这意味着Google只能依靠名字或者网页的内容来销售广告——比如,把卖鞋的广告放在和鞋有关的页面里。这种方式被称为“contextual”(上下文)定位法,很多广告商认为这种方法没有“behavioral”(行为)定位法有效,因为后者是根据不同用户特定的偏好来定位的。

In 2006, Gokul Rajaram, then a senior Google staffer, and ad-sales executive Tim Armstrong tried to change Mr. Page’s mind about letting other companies place cookies.

2006年,当时Google的高级雇员Gokul Rajaram和广告销售主管Tim Armstrong曾经尝试去改变Page先生关于其他公司使用Cookies的想法。

In an interview, Mr. Rajaram recalls that he thought it would be an easy sell. A growing number of advertisers were refusing to buy display ads from Google. Market research showed AOL and Yahoo were trouncing Google in the display market.

在一次访谈中,Rajaram先生谈起了那次他认为会是很容易的说服行动。越来越多的广告商拒绝在Google这里购买展示广告,市场调查显示AOLYahoo正在展示广告市场上把Google越甩越远。

Messrs. Page and Brin weren’t swayed. “I was kind of shocked,” Mr. Rajaram says. “They just didn’t look at it the same way.”

PageBrin先生却丝毫没有动摇。“我有一点震惊”,Rajaram先生说,“他们看问题的方式和我们很不一样。”

As factions inside Google fought over the issue, an opportunity arose. DoubleClick Inc., a giant in the business of placing display ads on websites, put itself up for sale—and Google archrival Microsoft Corp. was circling.

伴随着谷歌内部对此问题的分歧,一个机会出现了。DoubleClick公司,网络展示网告业务的巨人,决定将自己挂牌出售——Google和主要竞争对手微软竞相报出高价(希望获得此公司)。

Google executives were leery of the way DoubleClick used cookies to track people online, on the principle that many users had no idea they were being tracked, people familiar with the situation say.

据知情人士表示,Google高管十分担心DoubleClick使用Cookie跟踪人们网上活动的行为,特别是在许多用户还不知情的情况下。

But an acquisition of DoubleClick would instantly bring in display-advertising expertise and clients, they thought.

但是他们又认为,(如果)收购了DoubleClick就可以马上获得很多展示广告领域的专家和客户。

In 2007, Google agreed to buy DoubleClick for $3.1 billion. At the time, some employees joked Google had to spend billions just to get Mr. Page to like cookies, people familiar with the matter say.

2007年,Google31亿买下了DoubleClick。一些熟悉交易的人透漏,在那个时候一些雇员开玩笑说Google必须花几十亿的代价才可以让Page先生接受Cookies

Google and DoubleClick executives huddled decide how to blend the two companies’ products. They had a lot of ground to make up.

之后,GoogleDoubleClick的高管们决定把两个公司的产品融合起来。(要达成目标)他们有很多工作需要做。

According to a resulting presentation slide, dated July 2008—the one headlined “Get in the Game”—Google offered fewer ways to measure an ad’s effectiveness than Atlas, a rival owned by Microsoft. And Google had none of the behavioral-targeting capacities of AOL’s Tacoda unit—meaning it couldn’t target ads to people based on websites they visited.

根据那份20087月的名为“投入战争中”的演讲PPT显示,相比微软的AtlasGoogle提供更少的方法来衡量广告的效率。不同于AOLTacodaGoogle没有任何根据用户行为定位广告的能力,这意味着它不能根据用户访问的网站来定位广告。

Google executives finally agreed it was cookie time. As a result, every page where Google sold a display ad began installing a DoubleClick cookie on users’ computers.

最终,Google的高官们还是接受了Cookies。现在,任何一个有Google销售广告的网页都开始安装DoubleClickCookie到用户的电脑上。

For the first time, Google had the ability to deliver ads targeted to individual people’s computers. But just because it had the ability, Google didn’t start using it. There was still too much internal resistance.

这样,Google第一次拥有了可以为每一个电脑用户单独定制、投放广告的能力。但是这还仅仅是能力,Google没有马上把它投入实用中。因为内部存在强大的抵抗力量。

Mr. Weinberg, the author of the 2008 “vision statement,” came to Google from DoubleClick. He and a small group of product managers and marketing officials began discussing the ways Google could target ads to people more aggressively.

这份“前景展望”报告的作者Weinberg先生是从DoubleClick公司来到Google的。他以及部分产品经理、市场研究雇员一起开始讨论Google如何更加激进的针对个人定制与投放广告。

His memo, stamped “INTERNAL CONFIDENTIAL,” acknowledged the delicateness of the subject. Audience targeting is “of a sensitive nature,” it stated in the very first sentence, due to the possibility of “mis-understanding” among users.

他在一份标有“保密”的备忘录中承认这个问题十分复杂。备忘录中第一句话就说,用户定制(投放广告的方式)“本身就十分敏感”,因为这可能引起客户的错误理解。

The memo then went on to outline a sweeping vision in which Google could get other websites from around the Internet to share their data with it for the purpose of targeting ads.

这份备忘录接着概述了Google如何从其他网站获得数据,以达到广告精确定位、投放的目的。

The document also says Google could start selling ads across the Web based on the things it knew about people from their Gmail accounts, and also from their use of Google’s Checkout service, a PayPal rival.

同时这份文件还认为Google可以利用从Gmail账户中获得的信息来投放广告,同时还可以利用Checkout服务的数据(一种类似于Paypal的网络付款服务)

All of that would be a significant change. Currently, although Google places contextual ads within a user’s Gmail account, it doesn’t follow that person to other websites with those ads.

所有这些都会是极其巨大的改变。现在,虽然Google会在Gmail账户中展示文字广告,但是这些广告不会跟随用户展示到其他的网站上去。

The document shows awareness of the privacy implications. Nothing would happen “without strong consideration of privacy, legal and industry best practices in mind,” it states. A goal should be to limit users’ feeling of “creepiness” from seeing finely targeted ads, it says.

这份文件同样表达出对隐私政策所带来影响的关注。它说,“如果没有(公众)大规模的隐私(顾虑)、(同时也没有大规模的)法律以及商业实践”,那么什么都不会发生。最终的目标应该是让用户难以从量身定制的广告中发现自己被“跟踪”了。

By late 2008, Google executives were preparing to launch ads targeted at users’ interests. But the specifics still remained controversial.

2008年末,Google的高官们开始准备针对用户的特殊偏好定制广告,但是这还是引起了争论。

Tensions erupted during a meeting with about a dozen executives at Google’s Mountain View, Calif., headquarters about 18 months ago when Messrs. Page and Brin shouted at each other over how aggressively Google should move into targeting, according to a person who had knowledge of the meeting. “It was awkward,” this person said. “It was like watching your parents fight.”

这种紧张的局势在18个月前Google加州山景城总部的一次高级行政会议上爆发了。根据一位知情人士透露,Page先生和Brin先生互相咆哮着争论Google对待定制广告到底应该怎么办。“这很尴尬”,他说,“就像看着你的爸妈在吵架一样。”

Mr. Brin was more reluctant than Mr. Page, this person said. Eventually, he acquiesced and plans for Google to sell ads targeted to people’s interests went ahead.

知情人士说,Brin先生更不愿意接受这种方法。但最终,他勉强同意并且开始计划实施Google以用户的个人偏好作为依据定制投放广告。

Google launched the new advertising product, “interest-based ads” in March 2009. The service, currently available only to a limited group of advertisers, uses cookies to track any time a user visits one of the more than one million sites where Google sells display ads.

20093月,Google上线了新的广告商品“interest-based ads”(基于偏好的广告)。这种使用Cookies记录用户登录过的网站的商品现在暂时还只对部分广告商开放使用。

To offset the founders’ concerns about cookies’ secretiveness, Google set up a page, www.google.com/ads/preferences, where people can opt out and see what Google has inferred about their interests.

为了减少创始人对于Cookies侵犯用户隐私的担心,Google设立了一个专门的网站,www.google.com/ads/preferences,在上面用户可以查看Google推断出了他具有哪一些偏好并且能够随时选择退出。

Google adopted other vision-statement ideas. Last September, it launched its new ad exchange, which lets advertisers target individual people—consumers in the market for shoes, for instance—and buy access to them in real time as they surf the Web. Google takes a cut of each ad sale.

“前景展望”中其他的一些建议也被Google采用了。去年9月,Google推出了一种新的广告模式,在这种模式下广告商可以定位特定的用户,比方说希望卖鞋的客户,当他们在上网时(广告商通过)购买渠道直接把广告发给用户。而Google则通过每一次广告销售获利。

In short, Google is trying to establish itself as the clearinghouse for as many ad transactions as possible, even when those deals don’t actually involve consumer data that Google provides or sees.

简单说来,Google正努力让自己成为尽可能多的广告交易的结算中心,即使这些交易中并不包括Google提供或者看到的网络用户数据。

The further step in that progression would be for Google to become a clearinghouse for everyone’s data, too. That idea, also laid out in the vision statement, is still being considered, people familiar with the talks say. That would put Google—already one of the biggest repositories of consumer data anywhere—at the center of the trade in other people’s data as well.

更远的一个目标就是要成为所有用户数据的结算中心。知情人士说这种思想在这份文件中也有提出。这将使已经成为世界上最大的消费者数据储存库的Google进一步成为世界上所有交易的中心。

Corrections & Amplifications

更正与修订

GoogleInc. is “moving very fast” to explore new uses for its database of users’ online searches, Google founder Larry Page said to reporters last month. An earlier version of this article failed to make clear that Mr. Page was referring specifically to using search logs for such purposes as identifying public-health trends, rather than using its broad data for advertising.

Google公司的创始人Larry Page上周对记者说,Google公司正在“十分快速”地尝试利用自己的数据库进行各种其它的网络应用。这篇报道的前一个版本没有明确提出Page先生曾经说过他们将利用这些搜索记录用于识别公众健康趋势等领域,而过于强调将应用这些数据在广告投放上。

如夏花般绽放的红歌

八 8, 2010 Author xhxyfd

重庆之行的最后,我拖着累瘫了身体爬上飞机,一闭眼就一直睡到了飞机在长沙落地,连山城的最后一眼也没来得及看到就结束了。

这是一座传奇而悲情的城市。宋光宗在恭州一年内双喜临门,改恭州为重庆府,但重庆也没有带给他更多的幸运,一个不孝的皇帝最后在臣子的压力下奋而退位;蒋介石设重庆为抗战陪都,一时之间山城重庆成为了与伦敦、莫斯科齐名的战争都城,但这样的“美名”也让它饱受了日军炮火的摧残;国共两党在重庆和谈,但一份毫无军事基础和信用保障的双十协定,最后像废纸一样被国共两党扔到了纸篓里;建国以后西南局还在重庆的那段时间是它最风光的时候,1954年撤销直辖市之后又长期被蓉城压在身下;1997年,好不容易要回了直辖市地位,却又被绑上了三峡移民的艰巨任务,再加上渝东南的少数民族聚居的多山贫困地区,又让它拥有了一个并不光彩的别名,“农民直辖市”。

重庆人是长久的憋着一股气的,一股不被人重视、承认,也恨自己的家乡不争气的情感,薄熙来的到来为这种情感的迸发提供了一次绝好的机会。撇开唱红歌这种让人感觉些许有些“左”的形式,唱红歌的活动确实让山城人提振了气势;撇开打黑除恶背后可能的政治考量,黑恶势力的退缩确实让重庆安全很多;薄长期在商务部工作积累下的人脉为重庆带来了大量的外来资金;他长期在宣传系统耕耘的努力,以及重庆一些富有争议的政策措施,让山城在二战以后再一次成为了国人的焦点。

这一行见到了古老的门阀制度所具有的优越性。盘根错节、利益交织复杂的黑社会网络只有那些拥有巨大力量的人才有可能连根拔起,不是说常见的那些“平民派”官员不具备打黑除恶的个人能力,而是客观上他们确实缺少足够的政治资本和活动能量。而唱红打黑、惩治腐败的大型运动造成了整个重庆市一定程度上三军用命、积极进取的整体形势,如果没有这个大的前提,黄奇帆市长做的很多改革尝试,其实也是绝对没法开展,或者开展以后很快就将无法推进。

群众运动的力量保证了政治上一定程度的清明,同时也提升了整个城市的精气神,因此整个经济社会也就在行政长官合适、合理的规划下得到了快速,甚至是超常规的发展。

但这样的状态也让人不禁隐忧。首先这归根结底还是一种人治,摆脱不了人亡政息或者走火入魔的风险,第二这归根结底还是一种经过复杂的政治、经济、金融运作粉饰下的圈地运动,而那些获得城市户口,在城市中扎根下来的“逃亡者”以及他们的子孙极有可能成为城市下一代的贫民和流民,第三即使是再复杂的政治、经济、金融运作,也存在上下其手、中饱私囊的机会,不解决如何监督的根本问题,而妄图单纯通过复杂的审批流程杜绝国家的蛀虫,这早就被证明不是一条可行之路。

当然,我同意黄奇帆市长说过的一句话,世界是可以重组的,但是要基于几个原则:双赢;符合市场经济要求;由有权力者行使;讲究时机和方式。我们这群大学生骨干,说到底也只能算一群希望未来拥有权力但是现在肯定没有权力的人,我们坐在这里高谈阔论总是意义不大,但既然未来在我们手里,我们为什么不可以从现在就开始憧憬呢?

是为重庆之行碎感,记在8月8日凌晨

[2010.07.20]Online grocers: Keep on trucking – 不断上马前进

七 20, 2010 Author xhxyfd

Online grocers
网络食品杂货商

Keep on trucking
不断上马前进

Internet grocery shopping is booming. If only it were profitable
网络杂货生意正在不断膨胀,但愿他们能够盈利

Jul 15th 2010


There must be some money around here somewhere
这里一定有什么是赚钱的

IT IS vast, with more than 16 kilometres (10 miles) of conveyor belts and a futuristic control centre. It is also eerily sentient, in the way that highly automated plants tend to be, with thousands of little baskets zooming about. At this distribution centre, the largest of its sort in the world, Ocado fills baskets with about a million items of food and other perishable goods each day, loads them onto vans and sends them to homes across England.

这个配送中心十分广阔,拥有超过16公里(10英里)的传送带和一个超级现代的控制中心。这个拥有成千上万个小篮子的高度自动化的工厂同时也让人感觉十分怪异。在这个世界上最大的配送中心里,Ocado每天将大约一万份食品以及其他易腐货物装箱、放上货车然后发往整个英格兰地区的家庭。

Overshadowing the enormous warehouse, which sells about as much as 25 supermarkets would, are questions over the future of internet grocery shopping. The issue has been brought to the fore by Ocado’s plans to list its shares at a price that would putatively value the firm at about £1 billion ($1.52 billion).

这个销售量相当于25个超级市场的巨大仓库引出了一个问题:人们未来如何通过互联网买菜。而随着Ocado价值10亿英镑(15.2亿美元)的IPO计划,这个问题越来越受到人们的关注。

It is almost a decade since the collapse of Webvan, an American internet grocer that was a darling of the dotcom boom. Its short life seemed to sum up all that was wrong with the idea of bypassing shops and selling food directly to consumers. Its warehouses were enormously expensive and never fully utilised. Its delivery vans, which were rarely full, drove huge distances. And its customers balked at paying for being spared the torment of supermarket shopping.

这距离曾经的网络泡沫宠儿、美国互联网杂货商Webvan的破产已经过去了近十年。它短暂的生命似乎说明一切企图绕过商店直接向顾客出售食品的想法都是错误的。它的仓储费用很高同时难以充分利用库存空间。用于物流的货车十分缺少,而且(为了送货)每次必须跑很远的距离。而且客户(还可以)拒绝付款以避免超市购物最痛苦的部分。

Internet grocers are more popular in Britain, largely because many city-dwellers lack cars. Verdict, a research firm, reckons that internet orders will account for almost 5% of the British grocery market this year and perhaps double that by 2014. Ocado’s sales have increased by 21% a year since 2007. Ocado nonetheless has yet to make a profit and seems unlikely to do so soon. In this it has plenty of company. Most of its main British rivals are also thought to be unprofitable, though hard data are scarce.

在英国,由于很多城市居民没有汽车,网络杂货商要更加受欢迎。一家名为Veidict的市场调查公司声称网络销售占据了英国5%的食品零售市场,而且这个数字将在2014年翻一番。从2007年开始,Ocado的销售额每年都增长了21%,虽然它到现在也没有盈利而且在短期内也难以实现(盈利)。像Ocado这样的网络杂货商在英国还有很多,尽管缺乏第一手的数据,但大多数公司都被认为是不盈利的。

A company selling music online needs only to add a few servers to increase capacity if sales double. Amazon, the world’s biggest online retailer which relies on the postal service for many of its deliveries, can simply ship items a day or two later if it is overwhelmed. Grocers, on the other hand, sell perishable products that have to be kept frozen or cool and that must also be delivered at specific times. To make matters worse, online grocery shoppers tend to want their food delivered at the beginning or end of the week, leading to a crush of orders.

一家网络音乐销售商在销量翻倍的时候,只需要增加一些服务器就可以承受(更多的订单)。作为全球最大的网络零售商亚马逊,其依靠邮政系统投递大多数的货品,如果物流系统过载的话可以简单的推后一两天发货就行。但另一方面,杂货商销售的易腐商品必须保持在冰冻或者低温的条件,而且只能在特定的几个时间点里投递。更糟糕的是,网络杂货商倾向于在一周的开始或者结束时发送食品订单,这经常导致订单的堵塞。

All this is expensive. Some analysts reckon it costs £20-25 to deliver groceries to a British house. In large parts of America, where population densities are lower, it would be much costlier. And although customers currently bear the expense of going to stores themselves, they are reluctant to pay for their shopping to be brought to them instead. Nielsen, a research firm, found that the two most common reasons Americans gave for not buying groceries online were delivery costs and the desire not to have to wait for a delivery.

所有这些都是需要花很多钱的。一些分析家认为每投递一个商品到英国家庭大约需要花费20-25英镑。而在美国,由于人口密度更低,投递费用还会更高。还有,虽然顾客们现在是自己承担了去杂货店买东西(再运回来)的费用,但是他们并不愿意为了网络购物的物流环节付钱。市场研究公司尼尔森调查发现美国人不愿意在网络上购买食品的两个普遍原因:一是物流费用,二是不愿意花费时间在物流上。

One way of cutting costs is to pack bags at existing stores. Tesco, which has about half of Britain’s online-grocery market, does this. But the approach has limits: Tesco’s shoppers have taken to complaining if stores are crowded by busy internet packers. In response the firm is building “ghost” stores that are shopped only by staff packing bags for delivery. It may be a short leap from that to start delivering directly from warehouses, as Ocado does.

一种削减成本的方法是在现有的实体商店打包商品。占据了英国网上杂货市场一半份额的Tesco公司就是这样做的。但是这也有局限性,Tesco商店的顾客经常抱怨商店的服务被网络订单所占据。作为应对措施,Tesco正在建设一些“影子”商店以专门应对需要人工打包发货的订单。这离Ocado公司从仓库直接发货的方式又近了一步。

There is another drawback to online grocery shopping. A Harvard Business School study found that people ordering goods for delivery in a few days’ time were less likely to succumb to temptations such as ice cream. On the internet there is no sweet-filled alley leading to the checkout. In time Ocado may decide to open some real-world stores to capture such impulse spending, build its brand and keep its warehouses busy throughout the week. If that happens, supermarket chains and online outfits will gradually come to resemble each other.

网上购买食品还有一个缺点。一项哈佛商学院的研究发现,购买那些需要花费时间在物流上的物件,会使人们更容易抵制例如冰欺凌等商品的诱惑。网上购物也没有通往收银台的“甜蜜购物通道(译者:就是收银台端头的货架,经常会放一些小商品在其上,利用客户等待付费的时间吸引购买)”。Ocado可能会决定及时开设一些实体商店以吸引这一类的冲动消费,同时建立品牌、保持仓库在一周之内都得到繁忙利用。如果最终成为这样,那么连锁超市与网络杂货商会慢慢变得更加相似。

Business
商业

[2010.07.16]The Runaway General – 那个逃跑的将军 (四)

七 16, 2010 Author xhxyfd
McChrystal and his team show up the next day. Underneath a tent, the general has a 45minute discussion with some two dozen soldiers. The atmosphere is tense. “I ask you what’s going on in your world, and I think it’s important for you all to understand the big picture as well,” McChrystal begins. “How’s the company doing? You guys feeling sorry for yourselves? Anybody? Anybody feel like you’re losing?” McChrystal says. “Sir, some of the guys here, sir, think we’re losing, sir,” says Hicks. McChrystal nods. “Strength is leading when you just don’t want to lead,” he tells the men. “You’re leading by example. That’s what we do. Particularly when it’s really, really hard, and it hurts inside. ” Then he spends 20 minutes talking about counter-insurgency, diagramming his concepts and principles on a whiteboard. He makes COIN seem like common sense, but he’s careful not to bullshit the men. “We are knee deep in the decisive year,” he tells them. The Taliban, he insists, no longer has the initiative – “but I don’t think we do, either.” It’s similar to the talk he gave in Paris, but it’s not winning any hearts and minds among the soldiers. “This is the philosophical part that works with think tanks,” McChrystal tries to joke. “But it doesn’t get the same reception from infantry companies.”
将军和他的团队第二天在一个帐篷里与大约24名士兵进行了45分钟的讨论。现场气氛十分紧张。“我要知道你们那边发生了什么,但是更重要的是你们也要理解整个战略”,麦克克里斯特尔开场如是说。“你们的部队在这边干得怎样?你们觉得遗憾吗?有人觉得我们正在走向失败吗?”“先生,我们这里有些人确实觉得我们正在走向失败,”希克斯说。将军点头说:“如果你不控制力量,力量就会反过来控制你。举例来说,我们现在就是在尝试控制力量。但是这个真的很难,甚至会反过来伤害你自己。”他花了20分钟讨论COIN战略,在白板上演示他的概念以及原则。他努力使COIN战略显得更合理,同时十分小心地避免不激怒眼前的这帮大兵。“今年是关键的一年,我们已经深陷在这里了,”他说。他还坚持塔利班和我们一样都失去了主动。“但我不认为我们会失败。”这和他在巴黎说的差不多,不过却难以赢得大兵们的支持。“(COIN战略)是那帮智囊团的哲学作品,”将军甚至还尝试说了一些笑话,“看来他不怎么在士兵里受欢迎啊。”
During the question and answer period, the frustration boils over. The soldiers complain about not being allowed to use lethal force, about watching insurgents they detain be freed for lack of evidence. They want to be able to fight – like they did in Iraq, like they had in Afghanistan before McChrystal. “We aren’t putting fear into the Taliban,” one soldier says. “Winning hearts and minds in COIN is a coldblooded thing,” McChrystal says, citing an oft-repeated maxim that you can’t kill your way out of Afghanistan. “The Russians killed 1 million Afghans, and that didn’t work.” “I’m not saying go out and kill everybody, sir,” the soldier persists. “You say we’ve stopped the momentum of the insurgency. I don’t believe that’s true in this area. The more we pull back, the more we restrain ourselves, the stronger it’s getting.” “I agree with you,” McChrystal says. “In this area, we’ve not made progress, probably. You have to show strength here, you have to use fire. What I’m telling you is, fire costs you. What do you want to do? You want to wipe the population out here and resettle it?”
在Q&A环节,士兵们的沮丧之感不可避免的爆发了。他们抱怨不允许使用致命武力,经常因为证据不足而导致恐怖分子被放走。他们希望像在伊拉克或者在麦克克里斯特尔没来之前那样战斗。
“我们不害怕塔利班,”一个士兵说。
“COIN战略中争取人心的部分是最难的,”将军说,并引用了一句常用的格言:在阿富汗不可能靠杀戮趟出一条路来。“俄罗斯人在这里杀了100万人也没有起到任何作用。”
“我不是说要杀死所有人,”士兵坚持道,“你说我们已经阻止了恐怖活动(上升)的势头,但我不认为这是真的。我们越退后,越克制,他们就越嚣张。”
“我同意你的观点,”麦克克里斯特尔说,“在这里我们可能还没有取得很大的成绩。我们不得不强硬一点,(必要时还必须)使用火力。但我要告诉你的是,开火的同时对我们自己也会有伤害。我们到底来这里是要做什么,你是想杀了所有阿富汗人然后一切重新开始吗?”
A soldier complains that under the rules, any insurgent who doesn’t have a weapon is immediately assumed to be a civilian. “That’s the way this game is,” McChrystal says. “It’s complex. I can’t just decide: It’s shirts and skins, and we’ll kill all the shirts. ”As the discussion ends, McChrystal seems to sense that he hasn’t succeeded at easing the men’s anger. He makes one last ditch effort to reach them, acknowledging the death of Cpl. Ingram. “There’s no way I can make that easier,” he tells them. “No way I can pretend it won’t hurt. No way I can tell you not to feel that. . . . I will tell you, you’re doing a great job. Don’t let the frustration get to you. ” The session ends with no clapping, and no real resolution. McChrystal may have sold President Obama on counterinsurgency, but many of his own men aren’t buying it.
一个士兵抱怨说,在现有的规则下,任何一个没有带武器的人立刻被认定为合法的平民。
“这就是游戏的规则,”将军解释说。“这很复杂。(我们)当然不能只靠他们穿的衣服或者肤色来评判,要不然我们只要杀死所有穿同一种衣服的人就完事了。”
讨论结束的时候将军似乎因为没有成功地说服这帮大兵而显得有一些愤怒。最后他尝试通过谈论英格拉姆的死来达到目的。“没有更简单的办法了,不可能有不伤害任何人让所有人都觉得合适的方法的…我真的认为,你们在做一件真正伟大的事业,不要让这些沮丧击垮了你们。”会谈结束时没有一点掌声,也没有取得任何成效。或许麦克克里斯特尔的COIN战略对奥巴马很有用,但他的军队显然不买他的帐。
When it comes to Afghanistan, history is not on McChrystal’s side. The only foreign invader to have any success here was Genghis Khan – and he wasn’t hampered by things like human rights, economic development and press scrutiny. The COIN doctrine, bizarrely, draws inspiration from some of the biggest Western military embarrassments in recent memory: France’s nasty war in Algeria (lost in 1962) and the American misadventure in Vietnam (lost in 1975). McChrystal, like other advocates of COIN, readily acknowledges that counterinsurgency campaigns are inherently messy, expensive and easy to lose. “Even Afghans are confused by Afghanistan,” he says. But even if he somehow manages to succeed, after years of bloody fighting with Afghan kids who pose no threat to the US homeland, the war will do little to shut down Al Qaeda, which has shifted its operations to Pakistan. Dispatching 150,000 troops to build new schools, roads, mosques and water treatment facilities around Kandahar is like trying to stop the drug war in Mexico by occupying Arkansas and building Baptist churches in Little Rock.
当翻看阿富汗的历史就会发现,胜利并不在麦克克里斯特尔这边。唯一一个获得成功的外族侵略者是成吉思汗,但他没受到人权、经济发展以及新闻审查等议题的困扰。奇怪的是,COIN战略最大灵感其实是来自一些近代西方国家的巨大军事失败:法国在阿尔及利亚的肮脏战争(1962年宣布失败),美国在越南灾难式的失败(1975年宣布失败)。像其他COIN战略的支持者一样,麦克克里斯特尔不得不承认COIN战略下的战争十分混论、昂贵而且很容易失败。
他说“阿富汗人也常被阿富汗人弄糊涂。”虽然将军在努力争取胜利,但与那些对美国本土没有任何威胁的阿富汗毛头小子血战这么多年之后,我们仍然不能消灭已经成功转移到巴基斯坦的基地组织。我们总共15万的军队围绕着坎大哈建学校、修马路、建清真寺和饮水系统,但这就像试图停止墨西哥的毒品战争或者在小石头城修建浸信会的教堂(一样困难)(译者:未找到合适的背景资料)。
“It’s all very cynical, politically,” says Marc Sageman, a former CIA case officer who has extensive experience in the region. “Afghanistan is not in our vital interest – there’s nothing for us there. ” In mid-May, two weeks after visiting the troops in Kandahar, McChrystal travels to the White House for a high level visit by Hamid Karzai. It is a triumphant moment for the general, one that demonstrates he is very much in command – both in Kabul and in Washington. In the East Room, which is packed with journalists and dignitaries, President Obama sings the praises of Karzai. The two leaders talk about how great their relationship is, about the pain they feel over civilian casualties. They mention the word “progress” 16 times in under an hour. But there is no mention of victory. Still, the session represents the most forceful commitment that Obama has made to McChrystal’s strategy in months. “There is no denying the progress that the Afghan people have made in recent years – in education, in health care and economic development,” the president says. “As I saw in the lights across Kabul when I landed – lights that would not have been visible just a few years earlier.”
“(有些人)在政治上真的很吹毛求疵”一个曾在该地区有过丰富战斗经验的前CIA军官Marc Sageman说。“阿富汗不是我们的切身利益所在,那里没有什么有价值的东西。”5月中旬,也就是参加英格拉姆的追悼会两周之后,麦克克里斯特尔陪同卡尔扎伊访问了白宫。这对于将军来说是一个胜利的时刻,显示了他在喀布尔和华盛顿都具有相当的影响力。在白宫东厅,在众多记者和政治要人面前,奥巴马对卡尔扎伊大唱赞歌。两位领导人谈到了两国关系是多么牢固,也表达了他们对平民伤亡的悲痛之情。一个小时之内,他们说了16次“进展”(Progress),但绝口不提“胜利”(Victory)。而且,这次会见还体现出了几个月来总统对于将军最有力的承诺。“无可否认阿富汗人民在最近几年取得了极大的进展:无论是在教育、医疗还是经济发展上,”奥巴马说。“就如飞机降落时我看到的喀布尔的灯光,这在几年前可是绝对看不到的。”
It is a disconcerting observation for Obama to make. During the worst years in Iraq, when the Bush administration had no real progress to point to, officials used to offer up the exact same evidence of success. “It was one of our first impressions,” one GOP official said in 2006, after landing in Baghdad at the height of the sectarian violence. “So many lights shining brightly. ” So it is to the language of the Iraq War that the Obama administration has turned – talk of progress, of city lights, of metrics like health care and education. Rhetoric that just a few years ago they would have mocked. “They are trying to manipulate perceptions because there is no definition of victory – because victory is not even defined or recognizable,” says Celeste Ward, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation who served as a political adviser to US commanders in Iraq in 2006. “That’s the game we’re in right now. What we need, for strategic purposes, is to create the perception that we didn’t get run of. The facts on the ground are not great, and are not going to become great in the near future.”
这其实是一种令奥巴马很难堪的观察角度。因为在伊拉克战争最困难的时候,布什政府毫无改进的措施,因此只好也用同样的例证。“那是我们的第一印象,”在2006年伊拉克宗教冲突最严重的时候,一个共和党官员访问巴格达之后说。“有那么多闪耀着的灯光。”因此,奥巴马政府对伊拉克战争换了一个论调,谈进展,谈城市夜景,谈那些容易被衡量的工程比方说医疗、教育。他们认为那些几年前常用的修辞十分可笑。“他们在尝试操控人们的感受,因为对于胜利从来就没有明确的定义——胜利不是可以被定义或者简单识别的,”兰德公司国防事务高级顾问Celeste Ward说,他2006年曾作为政治顾问在美国驻伊拉克大使馆工作。“这就是我们现在在玩的把戏。从战略上来说,我们现在需要的是制造一个我们正在胜利的感觉。而实际上这不可能,在未来也难以成为可能。”
But facts on the ground, as history has proven, offer little deterrent to a military determined to stay the course. Even those closest to McChrystal know that the rising anti-war sentiment at home doesn’t begin to reflect how deeply fucked up things are in Afghanistan. “If Americans pulled back and started paying attention to this war, it would become even less popular,” a senior adviser to McChrystal says. Such realism, however, doesn’t prevent advocates of counterinsurgency from dreaming big: Instead of beginning to withdraw troops next year, as Obama promised, the military hopes to ramp up its counterinsurgency campaign even further. “There’s a possibility we could ask for another surge of US forces next summer if we see success here,” a senior military official in Kabul tells me.
但历史已经证明,现实情况很难阻止军方坚持到底的决心。即便将军身边那些最亲近的人明白无论国内的反战情绪如果高涨,其实一点也没有反映出阿富汗的情况到底有多糟。“如果美国人真正撤兵然后再回头去看这场战争,或许COIN战略不会显得那么受欢迎,”一位将军的高级顾问说。虽然有人这样现实(的看待问题),但美国军方却还在希望能够继续扩大战争的规模:不同于奥巴马承诺的从明年开始撤军,军方希望沿着COIN战略的道路继续向前。“如果我们取得了一定的胜利,明年夏天甚至有可能会继续增兵”,一个在喀布尔的高级军官告诉我。
Back in Afghanistan, less than a month after the White House meeting with Karzai and all the talk of “progress,” McChrystal is hit by the biggest blow to his vision of counterinsurgency. Since last year, the Pentagon had been planning to launch a major military operation this summer in Kandahar, the country’s second largest city and the Taliban’s original home base. It was supposed to be a decisive turning point in the war – the primary reason for the troop surge that McChrystal wrested from Obama late last year. But on June 10th, acknowledging that the military still needs to lay more groundwork, the general announced that he is postponing the offensive until the fall. Rather than one big battle, like Fallujah or Ramadi, US troops will implement what McChrystal calls a “rising tide of security.” The Afghan police and army will enter Kandahar to attempt to seize control of neighborhoods, while the US pours $90 million of aid into the city to win over the civilian population.
我们再回到阿富汗。那场不断强调“成就”的白宫会议过去后不到一个月,麦克克里斯特尔就遭受到了自执行COIN战略以来最严重的打击。从去年开始,五角大楼就着手准备今年夏天在阿富汗第二大城市坎大哈的大型军事行动,那里也曾经是塔利班组织最初的发源地。这次行动被认为会是整个阿富汗战争的决定性转折点,这也是将军向总统要求增兵的最主要原因。但是在获悉军队还需要做更多的准备之后,将军在6月10号不得不宣布将行动推迟到今年秋天。不过不像在费卢杰或者拉马迪那样展开大战(译者:在伊战初期,美军在拉马迪打了几场成功的战斗,而费卢杰是伊拉克最后一个投降的城市,在美军进攻费卢杰之前伊拉克军队就化装成平民撤退了),美军会采用一种被麦克克里斯特尔称为“更加安全”的打法。阿富汗政府的警察和军队会试图进入坎大哈强行控制城市的街区,同时美国将提供9000万美元的援助以争取平民的支持。
Even proponents of counterinsurgency are hard pressed to explain the new plan. “This isn’t a classic operation,” says a US military official. “It’s not going to be Black Hawk Down. There aren’t going to be doors kicked in.” Other US officials insist that doors are going to be kicked in, but that it’s going to be a kinder, gentler offensive than the disaster in Marja. “The Taliban have a jackboot on the city,” says a military official. “We have to remove them, but we have to do it in a way that doesn’t alienate the population.” When Vice President Biden was briefed on the new plan in the Oval Office, insiders say he was shocked to see how much it mirrored the more gradual plan of counter-terrorism that he advocated last fall. “This looks like CT-plus!” he said, according to US officials familiar with the meeting.
即便是COIN战略的支持者也难以解释这个新的计划。“这不像以前典型的行动,”一位美国军事官员说。“这不会像黑鹰坠落一样(译者:1992年一架美军黑鹰直升机坠落在索马里首都摩加迪休,有一部同名好莱坞大片《Black Hawk Down》描述了一队特种兵潜入营救同伴的过程。),我们不会每一扇门都踹门而入。”其他美国军官则坚持每一扇门还是需要都进去看看,但是要比在马尔贾的灾难式战斗更温和。“塔利班在那里经营了很久,”一个军官说。“我们需要把他们除掉,但是我们不能疏远那里的平民。”当副总统拜登在白宫椭圆形办公室向他人介绍这个新计划时,有内部人士惊讶的发现这个计划与自己去年秋天提出的循序渐进的反恐计划几乎一模一样,“就像做了一张CT一样!”他说
Whatever the nature of the new plan, the delay underscores the fundamental flaws of counterinsurgency. After nine years of war, the Taliban simply remains too strongly entrenched for the US military to openly attack. The very people that COIN seeks to win over – the Afghan people – do not want us there. Our supposed ally, President Karzai, used his influence to delay the offensive, and the massive influx of aid championed by McChrystal is likely only to make things worse.
无论新计划怎样,这次推迟行动显示出了COIN战略的根本缺陷。九年的战争之后,塔利班仍然十分强大以至于美军不得不一直保持进攻态势。而COIN战略最想争取的对象——阿富汗的人民——也不希望我们继续呆在那里。本应是我们盟友的卡尔扎伊总统却利用他的影响力一直推迟进攻,而将军倡导的大规模援助很可能会使事情变得更糟。
“Throwing money at the problem exacerbates the problem,” says Andrew Wilder, an expert at Tufts University who has studied the effect of aid in southern Afghanistan. “A tsunami of cash fuels corruption, delegitimizes the government and creates an environment where we’re picking winners and losers” – a process that fuels resentment and hostility among the civilian population. So far, counter-insurgency has succeeded only in creating a never ending demand for the primary product supplied by the military: perpetual war. There is a reason that President Obama studiously avoids using the word “victory” when he talks about Afghanistan. Winning, it would seem, is not really possible. Not even with Stanley McChrystal in charge.
“在问题上花钱反而加剧了问题,”塔夫茨大学的专家安德鲁 怀德对在阿富汗南部的援助进行研究后说,“巨浪般的现金催生了腐败,让政府的权威性丧失,以至于不可能达到双赢的状态”——而且这在平民中催生了怨恨和敌意。到目前为止,COIN战略唯一成功的地方就是(让我们)对军队产生了对于无止境的需求,因为这场战争永远不会结束。奥巴马对伊战永远不采用“胜利”这个词或许还有另外一个原因,那就是即使换一个人,战争也不可能胜利。

[2010.07.15]Exit strategies – 韩国:解脱的方式

七 15, 2010 Author xhxyfd

译者:我认为我们现在对于韩国的愤怒,很大程度上是一种盲目的误读。作为都是儒家文化下的国家,他们碰到的很多问题其实我们可以借鉴的。

Suicide in South Korea
自杀现象在韩国频现

Exit strategies
解脱的方式

A national debate about the alarmingly high suicide rate
高企的自杀率引起了全国范围内的辩论

Jul 8th 2010 | SEOUL

A COMPETITIVE spirit is something South Koreans pride themselves on. It has contributed both to the vast number of Koreans attending elite American universities, and to the country’s consistently strong economic performance. The never-ending push for achievement, however, also has a dark side: depression is a serious problem, and the recorded suicide rate—around 22 per 100,000 people—is the highest in the OECD. Now a popular television actor, Park Yong-ha, has become the latest in a series of star suicides. They have prompted a national debate, and the sad spectre of “copycat” suicides.

韩国人自豪于自己富于竞争的精神。这种竞争精神推动很多韩国人到美国最好的大学读书,也让整个国家的经济表现十分强劲。但是,这种对目标永无止境的追求也有不好的一面:抑郁症成为了一个十分严重的问题。而且造成了经合组织国家中创纪录的自杀率——每10万人中有22人自杀。现在一个十分受欢迎的电视演员朴龙河,成为了一系列自杀的明星里最近的一个。这导致了一场全国范围的辩论和一场对自杀的盲目模仿风潮。

According to a family friend, Mr Park felt burdened by the search for greater fame at home, where his popularity did not match what he achieved in Japan. He also seems to have had worries about his father’s health, and to have been in financial difficulties.

朴龙河的一位家庭朋友称他一直努力在国内争取更大的知名度,以匹配其在日本取得的成就。而且他似乎很担心父亲的健康,并且个人也陷入了一定的财务危机中。

Hwang Sang-min, a professor of psychology at Yonsei University in Seoul, argues that Korean society’s strong focus on appearances—having the right education, job or perceived level of success—is a big factor in the high suicide rate. “Koreans always want to show their best image to other people,” he notes, but when this cannot be maintained, it can lead to a desire simply to “give up”.

首尔延世大学的心理学教授黄生民认为,韩国社会过于注重一个人的外在条件—— 接受良好的教育,有好的工作,获得一定的成功— —这是自杀率高企的一个很大因素。他注意到“韩国人总是想要向其他人展示自己最好的一面,”,但一旦这个无法做到的时候,经常会简单直接地导致“放弃”的念头。

The focus on appearances is not unique to South Korea, and many blame the country’s media for helping build a “suicide myth”. Famous people who take their own lives become the focus of sensationalised reporting. Mr Hwang believes this can “provide a framework” for the vulnerable. A journalist in Seoul says there are guidelines for press coverage of suicide. The exact details of the manner of death, for instance, should not be reported. But he says the guidelines are often flouted.

但注重外在条件的文化并不仅仅在韩国(存在),因为很多人责备韩国媒体在助长一种“自杀氛围”:那些自杀的名人经常可以成为重要新闻的焦点。黄教授认为这会为弱势群体提供一种“自杀引导范式”。一个在首尔的记者称媒体中对自杀事件有一个报道原则,比方说对于自杀行为的详细描述是不被允许的。但是他也说这个原则经常被破坏。

Besides calling for greater press restraint, those worrying about suicide are also campaigning for a change in attitudes to mental illness. As in many other countries, this has long been stigmatised. Depression is beginning to be more widely recognised as a sickness. Even so, the suicide rate remains alarmingly high. An average of around 40 people a day took their own lives in 2009, an increase of nearly 19% on 2008. It seems odd that a country that can take so much pride in its economic and social progress in the past 50 years could have so many troubled citizens. But, as Park Yong-ha reportedly said: “This life is so hard.”

除了要求媒体自制以外,那些对此担忧的人士还在争取改变人们对于精神疾病的看法。在很多国家这个观念已经被接受:抑郁症开始被广泛认为是一种疾病。 即便如此,自杀率仍然高得惊人。 2009年中,每天大约有40人以自杀的形式结束了自己的生命,相比较2008年增长了19%。这似乎很奇怪,一个在过去50年取得了令人极度自豪的经济、社会发展的国家,却拥有如此多陷入困境的公民。不过,(也不奇怪)正如报道中朴龙河所说的:“生活是如此多艰。”

Asia
亚洲

[2010.07.14]The Runaway General – 那个逃跑的将军 (三)

七 14, 2010 Author xhxyfd
After graduation, 2nd Lt. Stanley McChrystal entered an Army that was all but broken in the wake of Vietnam. “We really felt we were a peacetime generation,” he recalls. “There was the Gulf War, but even that didn’t feel like that big of a deal.” So McChrystal spent his career where the action was: He enrolled in Special Forces school and became a regimental commander of the 3rd Ranger Battalion in 1986. It was a dangerous position, even in peacetime – nearly two dozen Rangers were killed in training accidents during the Eighties. It was also an unorthodox career path: Most soldiers who want to climb the ranks to general don’t go into the Rangers. Displaying a penchant for transforming systems he considers outdated, McChrystal set out to revolutionize the training regime for the Rangers. He introduced mixed martial arts, required every soldier to qualify with night-vision goggles on the rife range and forced troops to build up their endurance with weekly marches involving heavy backpacks.
毕业后,已经是中尉的麦克克里斯特尔加入了美军。“我们真的觉得我们就是和平时代的人,”他回忆说。“海湾地区确实有战争,但我们不认为那是多大的事情。”因此他决定到那些真正有挑战的地方去度过自己的军队生涯:他进入了特种部队学校,并在1986年成为第三突击大队的一名团级军官。这是一个在和平年代也很危险的职务:整个80年代,有将近两打的突击队员在训练中丧生。同样这在军中也不是正统的升迁路线:大多数有志于成为将军的士兵都不愿意成为突击兵。麦克克里斯特尔为那些他认为已经过时的训练系统带来了革命性的改变:引入混合格斗、要求每一个士兵必须能够在佩戴夜视镜的条件下使用来复枪、每周都进行负重行军以提升部队的耐力。
In the late 1990s, McChrystal shrewdly improved his inside game, spending a year at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and then at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he coauthored a treatise on the merits and drawbacks of humanitarian interventionism. But as he moved up through the ranks, McChrystal relied on the skills he had learned as a troublemaking kid at West Point: knowing precisely how far he could go in a rigid military hierarchy without getting tossed out. Being a highly intelligent badass, he discovered, could take you far – especially in the political chaos that followed September 11th. “He was very focused,” says Annie. “Even as a young officer he seemed to know what he wanted to do. I don’t think his personality has changed in all these years.”
在90年代末,麦克克里斯特尔开始精明地往政治方面发展。他花了一年时间在哈佛大学肯尼迪政府管理学院学习,然后在外交理事会里他与他人合写了一篇论述国际人道主义优缺点的论文。随着军衔的不断提升,他在西点军校作为一个坏小子学到的技巧开始派上用场:他清楚地知道这个僵化的军事等级制度可以忍受他多大程度的胡来而不被撵走。他发现即便是在911之后的政治混乱时期,做一个高智商的混蛋仍然可以使他得到高升。“他十分专注”,安妮说,“在他年轻的时候,他似乎就知道什么是他想要的。我不认为他的个性在这些年里有任何的变化。”
By some accounts, McChrystal’s career should have been over at least two times by now. As Pentagon spokesman during the invasion of Iraq, the general seemed more like a White House mouthpiece than an up and coming commander with a reputation for speaking his mind. When Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld made his infamous “stuff happens” remark during the looting of Baghdad, McChrystal backed him up. A few days later, he echoed the president’s Mission Accomplished gaff by insisting that major combat operations in Iraq were over. But it was during his next stint – overseeing the military’s most elite units, including the Rangers, Navy Seals and Delta Force – that McChrystal took part in a cover-up that would have destroyed the career of a lesser man.
有些人看来,麦克克里斯特尔的职业生涯至少应该已经结束两次了。在入侵伊拉克期间,作为五角大楼的发言人,他更像白宫的喉舌而不是一个很有前途的能够准确说出自己想法的指挥官。当国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德针对巴格达射击事件发表那段臭名昭著的“有事发生”的言论之后(译者:伊拉克战争期间,巴格达发生严重犯罪、抢劫事件,拉姆斯菲尔德解释说这是由于伊拉克人长期被压抑的情绪突然爆发的结果),麦克克里斯特尔表示坚定的支持拉氏。几天后,他强调由于主要的战斗已经结束,因此赞同布什总统“任务已经达成”的结论。之后,他被调任到一个十分重要的职位:指挥包括游骑兵军团、海报突击队和三角洲部队等美军中最精锐的部队。在这里,麦克克里斯特尔参与了一场对丑闻的掩盖行为,这直接导致了一个低级军官职业生涯的终结。
After Cpl. Pat Tillman, the former NFL star turned Ranger, was accidentally killed by his own troops in Afghanistan in April 2004, McChrystal took an active role in creating the impression that Tillman had died at the hands of Taliban fighters. He signed off on a falsified recommendation for a Silver Star that suggested Tillman had been killed by enemy fire. (McChrystal would later claim he didn’t read the recommendation closely enough – a strange excuse for a commander known for his laser-like attention to minute details. ) A week later, McChrystal sent a memo up the chain of command, specifically warning that President Bush should avoid mentioning the cause of Tillman’s death. “If the circumstances of Corporal Tillman’s death become public,” he wrote, it could cause “public embarrassment” for the president.
2004年4月,突击兵帕特 蒂尔曼,曾经的前NFL橄榄球明星,意外地被自己的友军在阿富汗杀害。美国军方努力营造出一个蒂尔曼是被塔利班武装分子杀死的假象,而麦克克里斯特尔在其中起了帮凶的作用。他签署了授予蒂尔曼银星勋章的建议函,函中说蒂尔曼是被敌军所杀。(麦克克里斯特尔后来声称自己没有仔细阅读那份建议函,这让人感到很奇怪,因为他一直以注重细节而著称。)一个星期之后,麦克克里斯特尔向上级提交了一份备忘录,明确警告说布什总统应该尽量避免提及蒂尔曼的死因。“如果下士蒂尔曼死亡的原因被公布于众,”他写道,这可能成为一场针对总统的“公共危机”。
McChrystal may have sold Obama on his strategy, but his own troops aren’t buying it. “The false narrative, which McChrystal clearly helped construct, diminished Pat’s true actions,” wrote Tillman’s mother, Mary, in her book Boots on the Ground by Dusk. McChrystal got away with it, she added, because he was the “golden boy” of Rumsfeld and Bush, who loved his willingness to get things done, even if it included bending the rules or skipping the chain of command. Nine days after Tillman’s death, McChrystal was promoted to major general.
麦克克里斯特尔这一套或许对奥巴马有效,但是他自己的军队却不买他的帐。“在麦克克里斯特尔的帮助下,虚假的故事掩盖了帕特的真实遭遇。”蒂尔曼的母亲玛丽在她的新书(《Boots on the Ground by Dusk》)中写道。她还说,这些肯定不会困扰到麦克克里斯特尔,因为他那把事情搞定的决心让他成为了拉姆斯菲尔德和布什面前的“红人”,即便这样做可能会违反规定,或者要越级执行。蒂尔曼死亡后的第九天,麦克克里斯特尔晋升到少将军衔。
Two years later, in 2006, McChrystal was tainted by a scandal involving detainee abuse and torture at Camp Nama in Iraq. According to a report by Human Rights Watch, prisoners at the camp were subjected to a now familiar litany of abuse: stress positions, being dragged naked through the mud. McChrystal was not disciplined in the scandal, even though an interrogator at the camp reported seeing him inspect the prison multiple times. But the experience was so unsettling to McChrystal that he tried to prevent detainee operations from being placed under his command in Afghanistan, viewing them as a “political swamp,” according to a US official. In May 2009, as McChrystal prepared for his confirmation hearings, his staff prepared him for hard questions about Camp Nama and the Tillman cover-up. But the scandals barely made a ripple in Congress, and McChrystal was soon on his way back to Kabul to run the war in Afghanistan. The media, to a large extent, have also given McChrystal a pass on both controversies.
两年后的2006年,麦克克里斯特尔被曝与伊拉克Nama军营的虐囚丑闻有关。国际人权观察组织的一份报告指出,在Nama军营中的囚犯遭受了几乎所有我们熟知的酷刑:高压审讯、被赤裸着拖过泥地。尽管营地内的一名审讯员声称曾经看到麦克克里斯特尔多次查看犯人,但麦氏并没有因此受到纪律处分。不过,这段经历让麦克克里斯特尔有如惊弓之鸟,在阿富汗他尽量避免任何与犯人有关的命令。“他把这个视作‘政治陷阱’”,一位美国官员称。2009年5月,当在为国会听证会做准备时,他的下属为他准备了很多关于Nama军营和蒂尔曼死因的问题。但这些丑闻并没有在国会中掀起波澜,他很快返回喀布尔继续指挥战斗。而媒体在很大的程度上也算放了他一马。
Where Gen. Petraeus is kind of a dweeb, a teacher’s pet with a Ranger’s tab, McChrystal is a snake-eating rebel, a “Jedi” commander, as Newsweek called him. He didn’t care when his teenage son came home with blue hair and a mohawk. He speaks his mind with a candor rare for a high ranking official. He asks for opinions, and seems genuinely interested in the response. He gets briefings on his iPod and listens to books on tape. He carries a custom made set of nunchucks in his convoy engraved with his name and four stars, and his itinerary often bears a fresh quote from Bruce Lee. (“There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.”) He went out on dozens of nighttime raids during his time in Iraq, unprecedented for a top commander, and turned up on missions unannounced, with almost no entourage.
如果说彼得雷乌斯将军(译者:麦克克里斯特尔将军的继任者)还仅仅徒有一个突击兵的外表,那么麦克克里斯特尔绝对称得上“绝地武士”的司令了(新闻周刊语)。他从来不管他十几岁的儿子顶着蓝色的莫西干头回家。他喜欢直率的表达意见,这在高级别官员中十分少见。他会问别人的意见,而且看上去似乎对回答十分感兴趣。他在iPod上阅读简报而用磁带来听语音书。他随着带着一把特制的双节棍,上面刻着他的名字和四颗星,他的日记上写有李小龙的一句话:人生没有终点,只有一个个停留,你不可以永久停在某处,必须不断地超越他们(There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.)。在伊拉克,从来没有一个指挥官像他那样亲自参加如此多的夜间搜查,而且经常在没有一个随从陪同的情况下,突然造访某处。
“The fucking lads love Stan McChrystal,” says a British officer who serves in Kabul. “You’d be out in Somewhere, Iraq, and someone would take a knee beside you, and a corporal would be like ‘Who the fuck is that?’ And it’s fucking Stan McChrystal. ”It doesn’t hurt that McChrystal was also extremely successful as head of the Joint Special Operations Command, the elite forces that carry out the government’s darkest ops. During the Iraq surge, his team killed and captured thousands of insurgents, including Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq. “JSOC was a killing machine,” says Maj. Gen. Mayville, his chief of operations. McChrystal was also open to new ways of killing. He systematically mapped out terrorist networks, targeting specific insurgents and hunting them down – often with the help of cyber freaks traditionally shunned by the military. “The Boss would find the 24-year old kid with a nose ring, with some fucking brilliant degree from MIT, sitting in the corner with 16 computer monitors humming,” says a Special Forces commando who worked with McChrystal in Iraq and now serves on his staff in Kabul. “He’d say, ‘Hey – you fucking muscle heads couldn’t find lunch without help. You got to work together with these guys.’ ”
“那帮小伙子都喜欢斯坦,”一个在喀布尔的英国军官说。 “你会在伊拉克的某个地方发现有人跪在旁边,会有下士问’他妈的那是谁的?为什么要向他下跪啊’,其实他妈的那就是斯坦。”麦克克里斯特尔作为联合特种作战部队司令部(Joint Special Operations Command)的指挥官取得了巨大的成功。作为美军最精锐的部队,他们干的也是那些最脏的活。在“伊拉克增兵”作战阶段,他的部队成功杀死或者俘虏了上千人,其中包括基地组织在伊拉克的领导人扎卡维。“联合特种作战部队司令部是一个杀人机器”,梅维尔少将说,他是将军重要的属下。在这里,麦克克里斯特尔找到了更有效地杀敌方式:他在网络高手的帮助下,系统的建立了一个反恐网络,可以找到反恐头目的位置然后把他们干掉。“老板会找来一个还带着鼻环的24岁MIT毕业生,让他坐在一个放着16个电脑显示器的角落,”一个曾经在伊拉克,现在在喀布尔为将军工作的特种部队军官说,“然后对他说,‘你那硕大的头脑肯定是不够的,你必须与这帮大兵合作。”
Even in his new role as America’s leading evangelist for counterinsurgency, McChrystal retains the deep seated instincts of a terrorist hunter. To put pressure on the Taliban, he has upped the number of Special Forces units in Afghanistan from four to 19. “You better be out there hitting four or five targets tonight,” McChrystal will tell a Navy Seal he sees in the hallway at headquarters. Then he’ll add, “I’m going to have to scold you in the morning for it, though.” In fact, the general frequently finds himself apologizing for the disastrous consequences of counter-insurgency. In the first four months of this year, NATO forces killed some 90 civilians, up 76 percent from the same period in 2009 – a record that has created tremendous resentment among the very population that COIN theory is intent on winning over. In February, a Special Forces night raid ended in the deaths of two pregnant Afghan women and allegations of a cover-up, and in April, protests erupted in Kandahar after US forces accidentally shot up a bus, killing five Afghans. “We’ve shot an amazing number of people,” McChrystal recently conceded.
即使是后来将军成为了COIN战略的旗帜性人物,他仍然保留了自己恐怖分子猎手的本性。为了持续给塔利班武装带来压力,他将在阿富汗的特种部队数量从4个增加到了19个。“你最好今天晚上消灭四到五个目标,”麦克克里斯特尔对在司令部里碰到的一名海豹突击队员说。他还补充说,“即便你做到了,我早上还是会骂你的(因为这不够)。”实际上,将军发现自己经常要对因为反恐导致的灾难性后果道歉:在今年头四个月,北约联军打死了大约90名平民,比去年同一时期增长了76%。这让民众对COIN战略产生了极大的反感,认为美军是在(压迫老百姓)强行的推行COIN战略。在2月的一次特种部队的夜袭行动中两名怀孕的阿富汗妇女被杀,而且有传闻说美军曾经试图掩盖这个事件。4月,由于美军意外枪击一辆巴士导致5名阿富汗人丧生,在坎大哈爆发了巨大的示威游行。麦克克里斯特尔将军最近不得不承认:“我们确实杀了很多人。”
Despite the tragedies and miscues, McChrystal has issued some of the strictest directives to avoid civilian casualties that the US military has ever encountered in a warzone. It’s “insurgent math” as he calls it – for every innocent person you kill, you create 10 new enemies. He has ordered convoys to curtail their reckless driving, put restrictions on the use of air power and severely limited night raids. He regularly apologizes to Hamid Karzai when civilians are killed, and berates commanders responsible for civilian deaths. “For a while,” says one US official, “the most dangerous place to be in Afghanistan was in front of McChrystal after a ‘civ cas’ incident.” The ISAF command has even discussed ways to make not killing into something you can win an award for: There’s talk of creating a new medal for “courageous restraint,” a buzzword that’s unlikely to gain much traction in the gung ho culture of the US military.
虽然不能阻止悲剧和失误的发生,但将军还是发出了美军有史以来在战区最严格的指令以避免平民伤亡。他认为这是一种关于“叛乱”的“数字游戏”,你每杀一个平民,就新增了十个敌人。他不准车队鲁莽驾驶,对使用空中力量和夜袭行动做出了严格限制。他经常因为平民被杀害而向卡尔扎伊道歉,并且严格斥责前线指挥官要为平民的死亡负责。“一度有一段时间,”一位美国官员称,“在阿富汗前线最危险的地方是在有平民伤亡之后站在麦克克里斯特尔将军面前。”一位ISAF的指挥官甚至在讨论是否可以为没有杀人(而完成任务)颁发一枚名为“理智的勇敢”的奖章,不过这似乎在美军那种低俗的枪炮文化中不大可能受到欢迎。
But however strategic they may be, McChrystal’s new marching orders have caused an intense backlash among his own troops. Being told to hold their fire, soldiers complain, puts them in greater danger. “Bottom line?” says a former Special Forces operator who has spent years in Iraq and Afghanistan. “I would love to kick McChrystal in the nuts. His rules of engagement put soldiers’ lives in even greater danger. Every real soldier will tell you the same thing.”
但是不论将军的命令在战略上多么正确,他的部队却激起了强烈地反对。由于被要求控制开火,使士兵们陷入了更加危险的境地。“我们的底线在哪里”,一位在伊拉克和阿富汗都服役过的前特种部队士兵说,“我真的很想踢麦克克里斯特尔屁股一脚,他对于交火的规定让我们处于更加危险的境地。每一个真正上前线的军人都会这样告诉你的。”
In March, McChrystal traveled to Combat Outpost JFM – a small encampment on the outskirts of Kandahar – to confront such accusations from the troops directly. It was a typically bold move by the general. Only two days earlier, he had received an email from Israel Arroyo, a 25-year old staff sergeant who asked McChrystal to go on a mission with his unit. “I am writing because it was said you don’t care about the troops and have made it harder to defend ourselves,” Arroyo wrote. Within hours, McChrystal responded personally: “I’m saddened by the accusation that I don’t care about soldiers, as it is something I suspect any soldier takes both personally and professionally – at least I do. But I know perceptions depend upon your perspective at the time, and I respect that every soldier’s view is his own.” Then he showed up at Arroyo’s outpost and went on a foot patrol with the troops – not some bullshit photo-op stroll through a market, but a real live operation in a dangerous war zone.
面对这种直接来自部队的指责,今年三月麦克克里斯特尔十分大胆地来到作战分队JFM在坎大哈郊外的小营地。因为在两天前,他收到了一份来自25岁的上士以色列 阿罗约的电子邮件,邀请他与部队一起共同去执行一次任务。“我给您写信是因为他们都说您不关心前线部队,(您的命令)让他们在前线难以保护自己,”阿罗约说。在几个小时之后,将军亲自写邮件回答说:“这种指责让我很难受,虽然我不认为所有的士兵都这样看我。但我深知一个人的看法取决于他当时所处的位置,同时我会尊重每一个士兵的意见。“之后他真的来到了阿罗约所在的哨所并和部队一起徒步巡逻——这不是在市场里闲逛、说些废话、留些照片的那种,而是在危险的战区真正地执行任务。
Six weeks later, just before McChrystal returned from Paris, the general received another email from Arroyo. A 23-year old corporal named Michael Ingram – one of the soldiers McChrystal had gone on patrol with – had been killed by an IED a day earlier. It was the third man the 25-member platoon had lost in a year, and Arroyo was writing to see if the general would attend Ingram’s memorial service. “He started to look up to you,” Arroyo wrote. McChrystal said he would try to make it down to pay his respects as soon as possible. The night before the general is scheduled to visit Sgt. Arroyo’s platoon for the memorial, I arrive at Combat Outpost JFM to speak with the soldiers he had gone on patrol with. JFM is a small encampment, ringed by high blast walls and guard towers. Almost all of the soldiers here have been on repeated combat tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and have seen some of the worst fighting of both wars. But they are especially angered by Ingram’s death. His commanders had repeatedly requested permission to tear down the house where Ingram was killed, noting that it was often used as a combat position by the Taliban. But due to McChrystal’s new restrictions to avoid upsetting civilians, the request had been denied. “These were abandoned houses,” fumes Staff Sgt. Kennith Hicks. “Nobody was coming back to live in them.”
六周之后,就是从巴黎回来之后,将军收到了另一封来自阿罗约的邮件。一个名叫迈克尔 英格拉姆的23岁士兵被简易爆炸装置炸死了,而他六周前曾经与麦克克里斯特尔共同执行巡逻任务。对于这个仅有25个人的排,这是他们今年损失的第三个战友。阿罗约希望将军可以参加英格拉姆的追悼会。“他十分尊敬您”,阿罗约在信中写道。将军承诺他将尽可能的前来参加以表达自己的敬意。在他计划前往参加追悼会的前一天,我去了一趟JFM所在的哨所并与士兵们交谈。这是一个很小的营地,被高墙和岗楼环绕。这里几乎所有的士兵都曾经在伊拉克和阿富汗打过战,经历了两次战争中最惨烈的一些战斗。但是他们仍然对于英格拉姆的死十分愤怒,他们的指挥官几次请求推倒英格拉姆在其中被杀死的房屋,并强调那间房屋被塔利班经常用来作为战斗据点。但是由于将军关于尽量避免破坏平民设施的新规定,这个请求遭到了拒绝。“这些都是被遗弃的房屋,”极度愤怒的参谋官肯尼斯 希克斯说,“没有人住在里面。”
One soldier shows me the list of new regulations the platoon was given. “Patrol only in areas that you are reasonably certain that you will not have to defend yourselves with lethal force,” the laminated card reads. For a soldier who has traveled halfway around the world to fght, that’s like telling a cop he should only patrol in areas where he knows he won’t have to make arrests. “Does that make any fucking sense?” asks Pfc. Jared Pautsch. “We should just drop a fucking bomb on this place. You sit and ask yourself: What are we doing here?” The rules handed out here are not what McChrystal intended – they’ve been distorted as they passed through the chain of command – but knowing that does nothing to lessen the anger of troops on the ground. “Fuck, when I came over here and heard that McChrystal was in charge, I thought we would get our fucking gun on,” says Hicks, who has served three tours of combat. “I get COIN. I get all that. McChrystal comes here, explains it, it makes sense. But then he goes away on his bird, and by the time his directives get passed down to us through Big Army, they’re all fucked up – either because somebody is trying to cover their ass, or because they just don’t understand it themselves. But we’re fucking losing this thing.”
一名士兵让我看了新指令列表。有一张命令卡上写道“只允许在那些你确定不需要使用致命武力保护自己的地区巡逻”。对于一个走遍了大半个地球来这里打战的士兵来说,这好像告诉一个警察你只能在那些你抓不到坏人的地区巡逻。“这些管用吗?”一等兵Jared Pautsch说,“我们应该是来这里仍炸弹的。现在应该问问我们自己,来这里到底是干什么的?”这些指令并不是将军发出的,它们在命令传递的过程中被曲解了,但将军明白无论怎么解释都不会消除士兵们的愤怒。“操,当我刚来到这里听说是麦克克里斯特尔在指挥时,我认为我们能打一场漂亮的战了,”希克斯说,他曾经在三个地方服役 。“我明白COIN战略,我能弄懂这一切。后来麦克克里斯特尔来到这里解释它的意义,这也很有必要。但是后来他走偏了,而且他的指令通过整个系统传达下来的时候,不管是因为有人要掩饰些什么还是有人根本没有弄懂这个,反正这些指令已经狗屁不通了。而我们则是真正(因为此)而可能丧生的人。”
(未完待续)

[2010.07.10]The Runaway General – 那个逃跑的将军 (二)

七 10, 2010 Author xhxyfd

After arriving in Kabul last summer, Team America set about changing the culture of the International Security Assistance Force, as the NATO led mission is known. (US soldiers had taken to deriding ISAF as short for “I Suck at Fighting” or “In Sandals and Flip Flops.”) McChrystal banned alcohol on base, kicked out Burger King and other symbols of American excess, expanded the morning briefing to include thousands of officers and refashioned the command center into a Situational Awareness Room, a free-flowing information hub modeled after Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s offices in New York. He also set a manic pace for his staff, becoming legendary for sleeping four hours a night, running seven miles each morning, and eating one meal a day. (In the month I spend around the general, I witness him eating only once. ) It’s a kind of superhuman narrative that has built up around him, a staple in almost every media profile, as if the ability to go without sleep and food translates into the possibility of a man single handedly winning the war.

去年夏天抵达喀布尔之后,由北约领导的International Security Assistance Force(译者:国际安全援助力量,简称ISAF,一个旨在提升阿富汗政府军队能力、政府治理能力、社会经济水平的军事力量)开始被这帮人改变(美国大兵嘲笑ISAF为“我一边战斗一边吹箫”或者是“凉鞋和拖鞋”的组合):麦克克里斯特尔将军禁止在基地中饮酒;把诸如Burger King(译者:汉堡王,美国著名的快餐连锁店)等多余的美国式非战斗单位赶出了基地;把晨会的参加人员扩大到了上千名军官;还以纽约市市长迈克 彭博的办公室作为蓝本,把指挥中心改造成了一个所有信息汇集的枢纽——战局模拟室。将军还有一些让他部下抓狂的习惯:每天只睡4个小时,早上起来一定要跑7英里,每天只吃一顿饭(我在将军身边呆了一个月,发现他确实每天只吃一顿)。这种近乎传奇的超人式习惯为他赢得了所有媒体的关注,大家都在猜测这种不用睡觉、吃饭的能力能否让他只手改变整个战争的局势。

将军在喀布尔的ISAF基地

By midnight at Kitty O’Shea’s, much of Team America is completely shitfaced. Two officers do an Irish jig mixed with steps from a traditional Afghan wedding dance, while McChrystal’s top advisers lock arms and sing a slurred song of their own invention. “Afghanistan!” they bellow. “Afghanistan!” They call it their Afghanistan song. McChrystal steps away from the circle, observing his team. “All these men,” he tells me. “I’d die for them. And they’d die for me. ”

快到午夜的时候,这帮Team America已经完全喝醉了。两个军官合着爱尔兰舞曲的节点跳着阿富汗婚礼的舞蹈。而将军的高级顾问们则手拉着手,含糊不清的吼叫着属于他们的阿富汗之歌:阿富汗!阿富汗!将军走了出来,望着他的这支队伍,对我说:“我愿意为他们牺牲,他们也能够为了我而死。”

The assembled men may look and sound like a bunch of combat veterans letting off steam, but in fact this tight knit group represents the most powerful force shaping US policy in Afghanistan. While McChrystal and his men are in indisputable command of all military aspects of the war, there is no equivalent position on the diplomatic or political side. Instead, an assortment of administration players compete over the Afghan portfolio: US Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, Special Representative to Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke, National Security Advisor Jim Jones and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, not to mention 40 or so other coalition ambassadors and a host of talking heads who try to insert themselves into the mess, from John Kerry to John McCain. This diplomatic incoherence has effectively allowed McChrystal’s team to call the shots and hampered efforts to build a stable and credible government in Afghanistan.

这一屋子的军官看起来像一群正在发泄着战斗情绪的老兵,但实际上这个坚强的团队是所有能够决定美国在阿战略的势力中最有战斗力的一支。不过虽然他们在军事上有着绝对的控制权,但是在外交或者政治方面则没有相应的地位,相反有一帮子文职官员在其中发挥重要作用:美国驻阿大使卡尔 艾肯伯里、美国政府阿富汗问题特别代表理查德 霍尔布鲁克、国家安全顾问吉姆 琼斯以及国务卿希拉里 克林顿,更不用说四十多个其他各种联盟的代表以及其他一大群只说不做的大人物们,比方说克里、麦凯恩等等。这些外交上的不和谐已经影响到了整个麦克克里斯特尔将军团队在军中的威信,也妨碍了在阿建立一个稳定、可靠的政府。

It jeopardizes the mission,” says Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who supports McChrystal. “The military cannot by itself create governance reform. ” Part of the problem is structural: The Defense Department budget exceeds $600 billion a year, while the State Department receives only $50 billion. But part of the problem is personal: In private, Team McChrystal likes to talk shit about many of Obama’s top people on the diplomatic side. One aide calls Jim Jones, a retired four star general and veteran of the Cold War, a “clown” who remains “stuck in 1985. ” Politicians like McCain and Kerry, says another aide, “turn up, have a meeting with Karzai, criticize him at the airport press conference, then get back for the Sunday talk shows. Frankly, it’s not very helpful. ” Only Hillary Clinton receives good reviews from McChrystal’s inner circle. “Hillary had Stan’s back during the strategic review,” says an adviser. “She said, ‘If Stan wants it, give him what he needs.’ ”

“这已经影响到了使命的完成,”外交关系理事会里支持麦克克里斯特尔将军的高级官员斯蒂芬 比德尔说,“军队自身不可能对政府实行改革。”一部分原因是结构性的:美国国防部的预算超过6000亿美元一年,而美国政府只有500亿美元。但另一部分原因则是因人而起的:在私下,将军的团队喜欢批评奥巴马政府中很多高官的外交主张,比方说一名助手曾经批评琼斯(退役的四星上将,冷战中的一位老手)是“小丑”,思维还“顽固地停留在1985年”;还有一个助手曾经评论诸如麦凯恩、克里这种政治家的行为“没有任何帮助:见一下卡尔扎伊,然后在机场的记者会上批评一下他,之后像什么都没有发生一样照常回国参加周末的脱口秀栏目”。只有希拉里 克林顿在将军的小圈子里获得赞美,“希拉里在整个战略评估阶段一直站在将军这边,”一名参谋说,“她还说:‘如果斯坦想要什么,就给他什么。’”

McChrystal reserves special skepticism for Holbrooke, the official in charge of reintegrating the Taliban. “The Boss says he’s like a wounded animal,” says a member of the general’s team. “Holbrooke keeps hearing rumors that he’s going to get fired, so that makes him dangerous. He’s a brilliant guy, but he just comes in, pulls on a lever, whatever he can grasp onto. But this is COIN, and you can’t just have someone yanking on shit. ” At one point on his trip to Paris, McChrystal checks his BlackBerry. “Oh, not another email from Holbrooke,” he groans. “I don’t even want to open it. ” He clicks on the message and reads the salutation out loud, then stuffs the BlackBerry back in his pocket, not bothering to conceal his annoyance. “Make sure you don’t get any of that on your leg,” an aide jokes, referring to the email.

将军一直不喜欢负责对付塔利班武装的美国驻阿特别代表霍尔布鲁克。“老大说,他就像一只受了伤的动物,”将军团队中的一名成员说,“霍尔布鲁克不断听到传言说他将被停职,这让他变得很危险。他是一个很聪明的人,但他只是想要在阿富汗插一脚,而不管自己是否抓住了事物的重点。但这里实行的是COIN战略,不可能有人帮你擦屁股。”在去巴黎的路上,将军打开自己的黑莓手机(译者:可以随时收发邮件的一种商务手机)查收邮件。“OH!有一封来自霍尔布鲁克的邮件”,他大叫道,“我一点也不想打开它。”他毫不掩饰自己的不悦,打开邮件念了一下开头的问候语就把手机关上放进口袋里。“小心别让你的腿上也长出那种东西啊。”,他的一位助手开玩笑道。

By far the most crucial – and strained – relationship is between McChrystal and Eikenberry, the US ambassador. According to those close to the two men, Eikenberry – a retired three star general who served in Afghanistan in 2002 and 2005 – can’t stand that his former subordinate is now calling the shots. He’s also furious that McChrystal, backed by NATO’s allies, refused to put Eikenberry in the pivotal role of viceroy in Afghanistan, which would have made him the diplomatic equivalent of the general. The job instead went to British Ambassador Mark Sedwill – a move that effectively increased McChrystal’s influence over diplomacy by shutting out a powerful rival. “In reality, that position needs to be filled by an American for it to have weight,” says a US official familiar with the negotiations.

迄今为止,与将军关系最紧张,但也最关键的,是美国驻阿大使艾肯伯里。他是一位退役的三星将军,2002年至2005年曾经在阿富汗服役过,当时麦克克里斯特尔还是他的下属,现在却成了阿富汗管事的人,这让他很不能接受。更让他生气的,麦克克里斯特尔将军在北约盟国的支持下,支持英国大使Mark Sedwill而不是艾肯伯里出任至关重要的阿富汗总督一职,此举一方面提高了将军在外交上的话语权,同时也成功的削弱了艾肯伯里的能量,让他不能在外交上与将军平起平坐。一位熟悉谈判过程的美国官员说:“事实上,为了让这个职务发挥作用,应该由一个美国人来担任(更好)。”

The relationship was further strained in January, when a classified cable that Eikenberry wrote was leaked to The New York Times. The cable was as scathing as it was prescient. The ambassador offered a brutal critique of McChrystal’s strategy, dismissed President Hamid Karzai as “not an adequate strategic partner,” and cast doubt on whether the counter-insurgency plan would be “sufficient” to deal with Al Qaeda. “We will become more deeply engaged here with no way to extricate ourselves,” Eikenberry warned, “short of allowing the country to descend again into lawlessness and chaos.” McChrystal and his team were blindsided by the cable. “I like Karl, I’ve known him for years, but they’d never said anything like that to us before,” says McChrystal, who adds that he felt “betrayed” by the leak. “Here’s one that covers his flank for the history books. Now if we fail, they can say, ‘I told you so.’ ”

这种关系在一月进一步紧张化。一份艾肯伯里写的机密电报被泄露给了纽约时报。这是一份既言辞激烈又富有远见的报告,大使在其中对将军的战略进行了严厉批评,还斥责阿富汗总统哈米德 卡尔扎伊“不是一个可靠的战略伙伴”,而且还怀疑COIN战略是否能够有效地对付基地组织。“我们将逐渐的被深陷在这里而无法脱身,”艾肯伯里警告道,“甚至会导致阿富汗短期内陷入无政府的混乱状态。”将军和他的团队被这封电报搞懵了,“我喜欢卡尔,我们已经认识很多年了,他从来没有在我面前说过类似的话,”麦克克里斯特尔将军感觉自己被出卖了,“之前他们什么都不说,现在如果我们失败了,他们可以说,‘我已经告诉过你了。’”

The most striking example of McChrystal’s usurpation of diplomatic policy is his handling of Karzai. It is McChrystal, not diplomats like Eikenberry or Holbrooke, who enjoys the best relationship with the man America is relying on to lead Afghanistan. The doctrine of counter-insurgency requires a credible government, and since Karzai is not considered credible by his own people, McChrystal has worked hard to make him so. Over the past few months, he has accompanied the president on more than 10 trips around the country, standing beside him at political meetings, or shuras, in Kandahar. In February, the day before the doomed offensive in Marja, McChrystal even drove over to the president’s palace to get him to sign off on what would be the largest military operation of the year. Karzai’s staff, however, insisted that the president was sleeping off a cold and could not be disturbed. After several hours of haggling, McChrystal finally enlisted the aid of Afghanistan’s defense minister, who persuaded Karzai’s people to wake the president from his nap.

将军试图主导外交政策最明显的例子就是他对卡尔扎伊的态度。对于卡尔扎伊这个希冀由他来领导阿富汗的人,不是艾肯伯里或者霍尔布鲁克,反而是麦克克里斯特尔将军与他的关系最好。由于卡尔扎伊手下的所作所为使他并不让人信任,而COIN战略需要一个值得信赖的阿富汗政府,因此将军一直在努力帮助卡尔扎伊。在过去几个月,他陪伴这个总统出席在全国各地的活动超过十次:各种政治会议、在坎大哈的与各派别的协商会议。今年二月,在注定失败的马尔贾战斗开始的前一天,将军甚至直接驱车前往总统官邸让他签署“同意”这个本年度最大的军事行动。卡尔扎伊的随从坚持称总统偶感风寒已经休息,不能被打扰。经过几个小时的沟通,麦克克里斯特尔将军甚至叫来了阿富汗的国防部长,最终说服这些随从去叫醒总统。

This is one of the central flaws with McChrystal’s counterinsurgency strategy: The need to build a credible government puts us at the mercy of whatever tinpot leader we’ve backed – a danger that Eikenberry explicitly warned about in his cable. Even Team McChrystal privately acknowledges that Karzai is a less than ideal partner. “He’s been locked up in his palace the past year,” laments one of the general’s top advisers. At times, Karzai himself has actively undermined McChrystal’s desire to put him in charge. During a recent visit to Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Karzai met three US soldiers who had been wounded in Uruzgan province. “General,” he called out to McChrystal, “I didn’t even know we were fighting in Uruzgan!”

这是将军COIN战略的主要缺陷之一,艾肯伯里也在他的电报中明确警告过了:建立一个可依赖的阿富汗政府让我们不得不听命于那些我们支持的蹩脚领导。而且将军的团队私下里也已经认识到,卡尔扎伊并不是一个理想的合作伙伴。“过去一年他就一直是呆在自己的官邸里”,将军的一位高级顾问感叹道。有时,卡尔扎伊自身的一些行为也在破坏将军对他的期待:在一次对沃尔特 里德陆军医疗中心的访问中,卡尔扎伊碰到了三个在在乌鲁兹甘省的作战受伤的美国士兵。 “将军,”他对麦克克里斯特尔说,“我甚至都不知道我们原来有在乌鲁兹甘省开展战斗!”

Growing up as a military brat, McChrystal exhibited the mixture of brilliance and cockiness that would follow him throughout his career. His father fought in Korea and Vietnam, retiring as a two star general, and his four brothers all joined the armed services. Moving around to different bases, McChrystal took solace in baseball, a sport in which he made no pretense of hiding his superiority: In Little League, he would call out strikes to the crowd before whipping a fastball down the middle. McChrystal entered West Point in 1972, when the US military was close to its all-time low in popularity. His class was the last to graduate before the academy started to admit women.

将军在一个军事世家长大,因此他的整个军事生涯也是一个辉煌和自大的混合物。他的父亲是一个退役的二星将军,曾经在朝鲜和越南打过战,他的四个兄弟也都入伍参军了。(跟随父亲)在各个基地到处迁移,小麦克克里斯特尔只好在棒球运动中找到了安慰,但也展示出了他的运动天赋:在小联盟中,他可以在招呼自己的伙伴投入战斗之前快速的带球从中路突破。他在1972年进入西点军校,当时美军在民众中的支持度处于有史以来的最低谷,也是最后一年西点军校只招收男性学员。

The “Prison on the Hudson,” as it was known then, was a potent mix of testosterone, hooliganism and reactionary patriotism. Cadets repeatedly trashed the mess hall in food fights, and birthdays were celebrated with a tradition called “rat fucking,” which often left the birthday boy outside in the snow or mud, covered in shaving cream. “It was pretty out of control,” says Lt. Gen. David Barno, a classmate who went on to serve as the top commander in Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005. The class, filled with what Barno calls “huge talent” and “wild-eyed teenagers with a strong sense of idealism,” also produced Gen. Ray Odierno, the current commander of US forces in Iraq.

这是“哈德逊河边的‘监狱’”,西点军校正如他的别名一样,是一个肌肉、力量和爱国主义的成功混合体:学员们经常因为打架而把食堂弄得一片狼藉;在过生日的时候学员们会玩一种叫做“可恶的老鼠”的传统游戏,他们让寿星全身涂满剃须膏,然后将他丢到雪地或者泥浆里。“有时候我们会非常的疯狂”,大卫 巴诺中将说,他是麦克克里斯特尔将军的同学,曾经在2003年至2005年担任驻阿美军的最高长官。在这个全是“天才”和“理想主义的野性男孩”的班级(巴诺将军语)中还走出了现任的美军驻伊拉克指挥官奥迪耶诺将军。

The son of a general, McChrystal was also a ringleader of the campus dissidents – a dual role that taught him how to thrive in a rigid, top-down environment while thumbing his nose at authority every chance he got. He accumulated more than 100 hours of demerits for drinking, partying and insubordination – a record that his classmates boasted made him a “century man.” One classmate, who asked not to be named, recalls finding McChrystal passed out in the shower after downing a case of beer he had hidden under the sink. The troublemaking almost got him kicked out, and he spent hours subjected to forced marches in the Area, a paved courtyard where unruly cadets were disciplined.

作为一个将军的孩子,麦克克里斯特尔也成为了那群不听话学生中的一个头目:这种双重的角色教会了他如何在僵化的,永远是下级服从上级的环境中,利用每一次机会对权威表达自己的藐视之情。他记录在案的不安分时间,比如喝酒、聚会、不服从上级等等呢个,累积超过了100个小时,这肯定经过了周围人的夸大,但也让他获得了“世纪男人”的称号。一个要求匿名的同学回忆道,麦克克里斯特尔曾躲在污水储藏池下喝完了整箱啤酒,之后在洗澡的时候晕倒过去。这件事情让他差点被开除出校,最终被罚在训练场上强行军了无数个小时。

I’d come visit, and I’d end up spending most of my time in the library, while Stan was in the Area,” recalls Annie, who began dating McChrystal in 1973. McChrystal wound up ranking 298 out of a class of 855, a serious underachievement for a man widely regarded as brilliant. His most compelling work was extracurricular: As managing editor of The Pointer, the West Point literary magazine, McChrystal wrote seven short stories that eerily foreshadow many of the issues he would confront in his career. In one tale, a fictional officer complains about the difficulty of training foreign troops to fight; in another, a 19-year old soldier kills a boy he mistakes for a terrorist. In “Brinkman’s Note,” a piece of suspense fiction, the unnamed narrator appears to be trying to stop a plot to assassinate the president. It turns out, however, that the narrator himself is the assassin, and he’s able to infiltrate the White House: The President strode in smiling. From the right coat pocket of the raincoat I carried, I slowly drew forth my 32caliber pistol. In Brinkman’s failure, I had succeeded.”

“我每次来看望他都是花大量的时间在图书馆里,因为他在那儿,”安妮回忆道,她从1973年开始与麦克克里斯特尔约会。麦克克里斯特尔毕业时在全国855个人中排名298,这对被广泛认为的一名杰出学生来说并不算好成绩。他最引人注目的成绩来自课堂以外:作为西点文学杂志The Pointer(译者:指针)的主编,麦克克里斯特尔曾写过七篇短篇小说,怪异的记叙了很多未来将在他的职业生涯中碰到的问题。在其中一个故事中,一个虚构的军官抱怨训练外国军队是多么的困难;还有一个故事,一个19岁的士兵误以为一个男孩是恐怖分子而杀了他。还有一篇悬疑小说《布林克曼的笔记》讲述了这样一个故事,笔记的记录者似乎在尝试阻止一场针对总统的谋杀阴谋,但最后发现这个笔记的记录者就是杀手本人,而且他有能力潜入白宫:“总统正微笑的走来,我慢慢的从雨衣右边的口袋里拿出32口径的手枪。我成功了,而布林克曼失败了。”

(未完待续)

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